AFC Championship Game analytics prediction: Will Broncos or Patriots head to the Super Bowl?

Last weekend may have brought us the biggest deflating moment ever after a big playoff victory. Denver Broncos fans were riding their horses high after their team knocked off Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills to punch their ticket to the AFC Championship. Shortly after the game ended, those Broncos were brought down to earth with the news that QB Bo Nix had a broken ankle and would not play the rest of the postseason.

As it always does, the NFL marched on this week after the Nix news, especially in the AFC. The Buffalo Bills fired Sean McDermott, then threw WR Keon Coleman under the bus at a press conference. Mike McDaniel took over the Los Angeles Chargers offense, with a chance to add another powerhouse to the AFC West (or he could still be the Bills or Raiders head coach). Another likely addition to the AFC West via the Las Vegas Raiders, QB Fernando Mendoza officially declared for the 2026 NFL draft, in his own unique way.

As the week turns into the weekend, and much of the country prepares for both conference championship games and a huge snowstorm, many assume that Denver’s Super Bowl hopes ended with the Nix news, but QB Jarrett Stidham will be ready to prove everyone wrong. The Broncos have been carried by their defense for much of the season and veteran head coach Sean Payton has a proven track record of offensive success to fall back on.

On the other side is the return of the “Evil Empire” of the NFL with the New England Patriots. The combination of MVP finalist QB Drake Maye and head coach Mike Vrabel has turned the Patriots into a true Super Bowl contender, a year removed from having a top-five pick in the NFL draft. Unlike their AFC title game opponent, New England has been carried by their offense in the regular season, while their defense has improved slightly in the postseason.

As we have for the last few seasons, we continue our “Analytics Predicts” feature for the NFL playoffs. DVOA is a metric that breaks down the quality of play compared to the league average while adjusting for the strength of the opponents being played. DVOA is one of a couple of catch-all analytics measures that help us understand the beautiful game of football better.

Unfortunately, DVOA’s data is unable to predict what Nix’s injury means for the Broncos. While no one assumes that Stidham is at the same level, quarterback play can be impacted by a myriad of variables that could help him produce similarly to Nix.

With the teams having competed in multiple postseason games, for the championship round, we will be using FTN’s data for both the regular season and playoffs combined.

Edge: Patriots - Does defense still win championships? The AFC title game will be a good test as New England barely edges out Denver with the fourth-ranked offense versus the fifth-ranked defense. The Nix factor is the unknown variable, but likely accounts for the current -4.5 spread in favor of the Patriots.

DVOA provides another piece of information as you make betting decisions, discuss the playoffs with your coworkers, or while making daily fantasy decisions. We are excited to see the AFC Championship game played on the field and see whether or not FTN’s DVOA was able to predict the conference’s Super Bowl participant.