Super Bowl 2026: 3 reasons the Seattle Seahawks will win

The Seattle Seahawks’ ability to remain competitive throughout momentous change is a case study in organizational management. Over the course of the past five years the team said goodbye to Russell Wilson, rolled the dice with Geno Smith, saw Pete Carroll leave, traded D.K. Metcalf and Smith, then signed Sam Darnold when everyone saw him as a flash in the pan QB — all while only one sub-.500 season, and even then the team was 7-10, never hitting rock bottom.

Essentially every move this organization has made to become contenders once more has paid off. That’s unheard of in a league where a stunning majority of general managers are objectively terrible at their jobs, and coaches turn over with stunning frequency. Now as we approach the Super Bowl the Seahawks are the justified favorites, the unquestioned best team in the NFL, and there are three key reasons why they’re going to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Santa Clara.

It’s not uncommon to see a defensive-focused team make it to the Super Bowl, but in the past we’ve always been able to put our finger on the key that made it all tick. When the Seahawks last won it was largely because of the Legion of Boom, the Eli Manning-led Giants had an endless string of elite pass rushers, while the 2015 Broncos married a peerless cornerback duo with a peak Von Miller wrecking everything in sight.

When we look at these 2025 Seahawks there’s no a signature element of their defense, because the scheme is the star. Mike Macdonald’s 3-4 hybrid system has been an enigma for the league’s best offenses to counter because of how they mask pressure and coverage, often in the same snap. This schematic variability has transformed the already solid Seahawks talent into absolute monsters.

This season we saw Seattle finish 10th in passing yards allowed, 3rd in rushing yards allowed, 1st in points allowed, and 6th in turnovers. There is nothing they don’t excel at, and that will be too much for the inexperienced Patriots to handle.

No receiver played better football in 2025 than Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Arguments over who was better between Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua raged this season, but at the end of the day Nacua benefitted from both Matthew Stafford at quarterback, and having Davante Adams across from him.

JSN had neither. This is a three level receiver who can take over a game by himself, and oftentimes he does. With soft hands, and incredible body control there’s been comparisons to Jerry Rice — which might be premature, but he’s showing that level of potential.

The Patriots have a good secondary in totality, but Christian Gonzalez hasn’t quite been a lockdown corner this season on a level where you can feel good about facing JSN. Even if we assume man coverage works, the Seahawks are adept and sending him on routes into linebackers, over the top to get mismatches on safeties — there’s a reason he had over 1,700 receiving yards this year.

This is a receiver who will eat, but the key is not allowing those opportunities turn into points. On this level the Seahawks are just better at finishing drives than the Pats are at stopping them.

I’m all aboard the Drake Maye train. I don’t think it will be long before he becomes a top-3 quarterback in the NFL, if he isn’t already — and the ceiling is limitless for him. That said, what we’ve seen these playoffs is that the pressure of playoff football, with all the expectation that comes with it, it’s been a little bit too much for him.

Maye’s postseason is giving 2021 Joe Burrow vibes, when he led the Bengals to the Super Bowl. He was good in the playoffs, but not great, and when facing the Rams in the Super Bowl it was just a little too much for him that early in his career. The offensive line allowed Burrow to be sacked seven times, Aaron Donald and Von Miller put him in a blender, and there’s a very real possibility the same thing happens here.

It’s just too early for Drake Maye and the Patriots, which gives a huge edge to the Seahawks.