The Buccaneers are right to play hardball with Baker Mayfield

It hasn’t reached the point of standoff yet, but it’s clear things are not going well between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield in their contract negotiations. News emerged Friday that the sides were “not close” on an extension, and it came directly from Mayfield himself as he spoke to local media after practice.

What makes the Mayfield situation so tricky is that there’s no good answer on which way the Bucs should go. It’s justifiable to say they should just pony up the cash and lock down their quarterback, but the extension comes at a critical pivot point for the franchise that they simply can’t ignore. In this way, the decision to extend Mayfield or not will be under the guidance of the current front office, but knowing full well that wholesale leadership change could be underway after this season. That means Mayfield’s future in Tampa runs the gamut from him potentially being a guy like Sam Darnold who could lead the team to a Super Bowl eventually, but in equal measure, he could be Tua Tagovailoa, a quarterback whose success was fleeting and unsustainable.

The Buccaneers are a good football team in a very weird position when it comes to the landscape of the NFL. They boast talent a on both sides of the football, yet there isn’t really a marquee player you can hang your hat on as being elite — at least on the offensive side of the ball. Mike Evans leaving in free agency cemented that, which compounds the problem of projecting Mayfield’s future. Sure, he made two Pro Bowls since landing in Tampa, but the regression in 2025 was fairly significant, and could become worse without Evans to stretch the field.

We’re left with a quarterback who has put up some great numbers over the last three seasons, but there are lingering questions whether this was a product of great offensive coordinators and weapons, rather than the play of a QB himself. That’s an alarming question mark when you’re talking about a big-money guaranteed contract — and even worse when there’s no continuity guarantee on the coaching side of things.

The fact that Todd Bowles will be on his way out is the worst-kept secret in football. Heck, it’s not even a secret at this point. The only thing that has blocked the Bucs from moving on at head coach is a fear they can’t get anyone better right now, and the idea of Bowles being axed has been stoked by rumors that the organization is already looking ahead to 2027, potentially luring Mike Tomlin down to Tampa to take over the team.

Moreover, there’s no guarantee that general manager Jason Licht will return next season, depending on the outcome of this year. Tampa Bay needs to make the playoffs to justify him sticking around, but the Bucs have more or less been treading water for three years now while their competition in the division has improved. That means we sit in a situation where there’s no clear “best” in the NFC South, with Tampa potentially being a division-winning team, or finishing third — and both outcomes feel equally possible.

If you’re running the organization, it puts a huge cloud over extending Mayfield. Having a disjointed plan has never worked at building a contender, and if Tampa Bay extends Mayfield, then fires Bowles and Licht after this year — well, that’s a huge ask for an incoming coach and GM to have to deal with massive guaranteed money for a middling quarterback, especially one who is over 30-years-old. The age isn’t as important hear as the football age on Mayfield’s body, and he remains one of the more slight players at the position in the NFL, and he’s taken a lot of hits over his career.

Mayfield is only under contract for 2026, and keeping it that way is the correct move in this case. It’s obvious that he will push for the security of the new deal, but there are just too many lingering questions about both Mayfield’s ability in this offense without Mike Evans, and the future direction of the franchise to risk losing everything to retain the QB. If Mayfield didn’t regress in 2025 it would be a much easier choice, but he did — and that’s what makes this scary.

The solace for Buccaneers fans is that the organization isn’t making a rash move here and just paying Baker. The need to really think this move through, because it will define the organization for the next five-to-seven years.