NFL Picks And Lines For Week 11: How Do The Bears Have A Shot At The Playoffs?

We’re back for another week of lines from Vegas and semi-reliable NFL picks. No, I didn’t finish this column in time for Thursday Night Football, and Roger Goodell can kiss my ass. I would have picked Miami, anyway, because I still refuse to believe the Chicago Bears are 7-3 and playoff-bound.

Speaking of the Bears, here are the teams .500 or above that are actually quite awful: Miami Dolphins (5-5), Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4), either the Raiders (5-4) or the Chiefs (5-4), New York Giants (6-3), Seattle Seahawks (5-4), Chicago Bears (7-3), and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3).

Isn’t parity great?! Look at these blatantly flawed football teams that have inexplicably stumbled into contention! EXCITING STUFF. Let’s move on to this week’s lines before I swear off the NFL for good. Courtesy of Odds Shark, here’s what we’re working with:

Last week’s column continued our underwhelming trend of going 3-2 every single week, ever. This is good because it means if you read this column and are actually foolish enough to follow the advice, you’ve been making some money. BUT IT’S NOT ENOUGH.

So, thanks to Chansi Stuckey for his overtime fumble that gave the Jets a chance at a cover (which they did), but I’d rather focus on what we’re NOT winning. Which means... screw you, Cincinnati, for covering a seven-point line with a six point loss. You suck, and this is the face of your franchise:

Don’t you think Chad Johnson Ochocinco should just wear those off-brand, anonymous jerseys all the time? He’s not actually a football player at this point. He’s more like a character from The Replacements. You know, the super-sassy receiver, always right around the corner with a new punch line, and always ready to sell himself to whoever’s buying. (I mean, he did a pistachio for Christ’s sake.) He’s also awful now, if that helps.

...But let’s get to this week’s picks. We’ll be quick.

1. Cleveland (+1.5) at Jacksonville Colt McCoy! Do you believe? Because you should. At least until he suffers some horrible injury and follows in the footsteps of Cleveland’s biblically cursed athletes. Until then, he’s the real deal, and the Browns should have beaten the Jets last week. Take Colt, because even Jacksonville doesn’t think Jacksonville can win two straight.

2. Atlanta (-3) at St. Louis. With all due respect to Aaron Rodgers, it’s time to admit Matt Ryan is the best young quarterback in the league. And with the weapons around him in Atlanta (Roddy White!), the Falcons actually look a little terrifying as we head into the home stretch in 2010. Not Michael Vick-Monday night terrifying, but good enough to make some noise in the playoffs once they get there. And definitely good enough to beat the crap out of St. Louis on Sunday. Take Atlanta, because Matt Ryan is pretty much perfect.

3. Houston at New York Jets (-7) Houston probably should have won last week in Jacksonville, and the Jets probably should have lost each of their last two games. This line is also three points too high. So take New York! Because gambling on the NFL usually makes no sense.

4. Arizona (+8) at Kansas City. Part One: Any line that makes you do a double-take and say, “Wait a second, didn’t they lose by __ points on Sunday?” is probably a terrible line. Didn’t Kansas City get completely embarrassed by Denver on Sunday? Not saying the Chiefs won’t win, but I’m not sure they’re capable of blowing out any team in the NFL at this point. Take Arizona, because Todd Haley’s not holding them back anymore.

5. Denver (+10) at San Diego Part Two: Any line that makes you do a double-take and say, “Wait a second, didn’t they WIN by __ points on Sunday?” is probably a terrible line. Take Denver, because 10 points is too much. And Phillip Rivers is actually more insufferable than Tim Tebow, when you think about it.