We’re back for another week of NFL picks. Another week of outsmarting Vegas, getting rich and (eventually) losing it all. Because that’s what gambling is about, right?
NFL Picks, Lines And Odds For Week 9: Never Bet On The Redskins
We’re back after backing the NFL underdogs hard in Week 8. How’d that work out? Well, it could have been much better if not the for good old Washington Redskins. Get ready for Week 9 with picks and odds from Odds Shark and SB Nation. When in doubt? Bet against Dallas and Carolina.
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This week's NFL picks will be shorter than usual, because I'm running late for a flight to Louisiana for this weekend's college football death match between LSU and Alabama. Nevertheless, I'd like to point out that my underdogs-only strategy from last week turned out to be decently successful. It feels more successful than it was, because before the Sunday night game (Steelers-Saints) I just said "Screw it!" and bet my entire Sportsbook account on the Saints, the only favorite we picked in last week's column.
And that worked out, which is cool, because it means I can still bet on football each week. As for the rest of last week's picks, the Redskins and Titans failed to deliver, leaving the final record at a solid-but-unimpressive 3-2. And I guess that's all right. But before we get started, let's talk about the Redskins and why nobody should ever gamble on that Godforsaken team to get anything right.
The worst part about the Redskins is that you can’t bet against them, either. They are one of those perfectly mediocre franchises (along with Oakland) that has a way of winning games they’re supposed to lose, and then, just when everyone shows a little faith in them, they manage to absolutely crush your spirit. That’s the Redskins in the last 10 years. And for gambling purposes, it’s pretty much made them the most nightmarish team of all time.
Because sure, it probably seemed like a safe bet to take them against the Lions last week -- or the Rams in Week 3 -- and betting against them when they played Indianapolis and Green Bay seemed just as safe. But that's the thing about mediocrity ... You just never know when an inconsistent, disorganized team is going to show up, or shoot themselves in the foot.
On Sunday in Detroit, the Redskins did a lot of foot-shooting. Whether it was the gawdawful special teams play, the flag that gave the Lions a chance at a touchdown after they'd settled for a field goal, or just generally, the sinking feeling I had as the game unfolded -- this was going to be one of those Redskins games. One of the games that I usually love to watch, because it's hilarious watching the fans in D.C. melt down over this stuff. But since I made the mistake of trusting Mike Shanahan and Donovan McNabb to find a way to beat the Detroit Lions, I was melting down right there with 'em. It sucked.
So, new rule: Never bet on the Redskins. You don’t know when they’ll inexplicably rise to the occasion, and more importantly, it’s impossible to predict when they’ll fall flat on their face and remind everyone that, yes, they’re still the goddamn Redskins. Hate you, Shanahan.
- New England (-4.5) at Cleveland
- San Diego (-3) at Houston
- Miami at Baltimore (-5)
- New Orleans (-7) at Carolina
- New York Jets (-4.5) at Detroit
- Arizona at Minnesota (-8.5)
- Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-8.5)
- Chicago (-3) at Buffalo
- New York Giants (-7) at Seattle
- Indianapolis at Philadelphia (-3)
- Kansas City at Oakland (-2.5)
- Dallas at Green Bay (-8)
- Pittsburgh (-5) at Cincinnati
Now onto some quick picks:
1. Miami (+5) at Baltimore. The Ravens looked terrible against the Bills two weeks ago, and Miami has looked good just about every week this year. I don't understand why the Ravens don't dominate every week, and I don't understand how the Dolphins keep competing with teams that DON'T have Chad Henne starting at quarterback, but both things keep happening. It'll be a close game this weekend, because that's true of every Dolphins game this year. Whether they can win is another story, but they'll keep things closer than five points. Take Miami.
2. Arizona (+8.5) at Minnesota. After a brief flirtation with a comeback, the Vikings have descended into utter chaos. I'm willing to bet 75 percent of the team hates Brad Childress for cutting Randy Moss, and Brett Favre's ongoing saga at quarterback is a whole 'nother story. So, can someone explain to me why they are favored by more than three points this weekend? Eight-and-a-half? Are you kidding me? The Vikings might actually quit on their coach--like in a literal sense, I could see Percy Harvin refusing to re-enter the game. No, I'm not taking the points. Bet Arizona, and hide your children from Brad Childress.
3. Dallas at Green Bay (-8). What will it take for Jerry Jones to fire Wade Phillips? Would a 30-point loss on National Television do the trick? Take the Packers, because Wade Phillips is doomed.
4. New Orleans (-7) at Carolina. I almost took the Texans over the Chargers in this spot, but then I realized: Both of those teams are basically the Redskins. So, rather than decide which bad team might be less bad this week, why not pick a good team to be a terrible team? The Panthers just lost to the Rams, after all. Their only win came against the 49ers. Drew Brees is Drew Brees. The Saints are sitting at 5-3 and need to go on a roll to get in position for another Super Bowl run. They just beat Pittsburgh, maybe the best team in football. So let's not outsmart ourselves. Take the Saints, because the Panthers exist to be wagered against.
5. New York Jets (-4.5) at Detroit. Did you know the Jets are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine road games? I didn’t, but that comes courtesy of Odds Shark and it sure sounds impressive. Impressive enough to make us forget how genuinely awful New York looked last week against the Packers? Maybe? The thing is, New York’s too good to look that bad too weeks in a row. And Detroit, while heartwarming, isn’t good enough to win two games in a row against superior teams. Maybe they’ll get there next year, but having watched the entire Skins-Lions game, I think it’s fair to say they’re a year away. Trust in Rex, and take the Jets.
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