2011 NFL Playoff Picture And The Injury Effect

When the Tennessee Titans replaced quarterback Matt Hasselbeck with rookie Jake Locker in the third quarter of their game against the Falcons last week, I didn't think too much about it. I dutifully wrote up a quick update on Hasselbeck's sprained elbow for SB Nation's NFL hub and watched in amazement as Locker promptly threw two touchdown passes. A thirty-something quarterback injured, replaced by a prodigious rookie, not at all unusual in the NFL. Still, something still felt off after writing up a fairly routine Sunday update.

Later, while reading over the reports of Jay Cutler's broken thumb, that tinge jumped off the page, knocking me over and probably tearing an ACL in the process: 2011 is the year of the injured starter. Busted digits and torn ligaments are sweeping through the NFL like the bird flu, sending us to the floor in convulsions after seeing playoff hopes dashed and fantasy teams wrecked.

Three starting quarterbacks were lost for the season, or most of the rest of it, between this week and last, Matt Schaub of the Texans, Matt Cassel of the Chiefs and Jay Cutler of the Bears. The status of two more starters, Hasselbeck and Michael Vick, is up in the air. Eleven teams have dealt with injuries in one form or another to their starting quarterbacks this season. And those are just the quarterbacks.

Adrian Peterson has a high ankle sprain. Jamaal Charles' season ended in Week 2. Peyton Hillis is still sidelined. Steven Jackson and Arian Foster both missed time early in the season.

Remember when the Buffalo Bills started the season 5-0? That seems like a long time ago after watching them lose to Miami, who started the season 0-7. The Bills are 1-4 since losing starting nose tackle Kyle Williams. Terrence McGee and Shawne Merriman landed on IR, along with starting center Eric Wood and wide receiver Roscoe Perrish. New England has built their usual lead in the division. Linebacker Brandon Spikes missed the last two games with a strained MCL, and cornerback Devin McCourty missed the last game with a shoulder injury. The Patriots have a very favorable schedule to wind down the season.

The season started with Peyton Manning on the shelf, and the AFC South has been wide open since week 1. Houston filled the void right away, but their two game lead could suffer with Schaub likely needing foot surgery. That makes Matt Leinart their quarterback, and even though he has Andre Johnson and Arian Foster to work with, it is still Matt Leinart leading the offense.

A total of two games separate the top and bottom of the AFC West, so it is technically anybody's division to take. The loss of Matt Cassel would seem to put the Chiefs in a deep hole, based on early returns from week 11. However, they managed to handle the loss of Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry, so maybe they still have an outside chance. The loss of Jason Campbell led to Oakland, the current division leaders, to acquire Carson Palmer. Michael Bush's play has minimized the impact of Darren McFadden's injury. Can that last?

Philip Rivers may or may not be playing through an injury, but gross incompetence from Norv Turner and the front office are responsible for most of the damage in San Diego. One game back, Denver proved with a win over the Jets this week that they cannot be overlooked. Tim Tebow controls most of their destiny, and he and Willis McGahee seem capable enough of keeping the running game going without Knowshon Moreno.

No team has dealt with significant injuries better than the New York Giants. However, back-to-back losses to the 49ers and Eagles don't bode well for their postseason hopes this year. Two games left to play against the Dallas Cowboys will probably decide the winner of this division. Despite some rib troubles for Tony Romo early in the season, the injury report dealt the Cowboys a favorable hand so far. Miles Austin is out for the second time, but Dez Bryant and Laurent Robinson have picked up the slack nicely.

No team is going to catch Green Bay, barring some sort of historic collapse or an injury to Aaron Rodgers. Safety Nick Collins has been the Packers' only notable loss, and the defense has carried on well without him, for the most part.

Obviously the most important injury situation here is Bears' quarterback Jay Cutler and his broken thumb. Chicago is banking on his return in time for the season finale and a potential postseason run. They have a fairly soft schedule between now and then, and as of this writing there were whispers that they could reunite with the recently released Kyle Orton as a replacement. Chicago and Detroit are locked in a dog fight for a Wild Card ticket to the playoffs, and they could both earn one of those bids. The Lions biggest loss has been running back Jahvid Best, who has been out since week 6 with a concussion. They seemed to have found an answer for Best after dusting off old friend Kevin Smith.

The Saints have been fortunate on the injury front, and while the team has struggled at times this season, New Orleans has no need to burn a doctor in effigy. Offensive line depth could be an issue with tackle Charles Brown on IR. Atlanta is finally getting its act together after a sluggish start to the season. Offensive line depth is a concern for the Falcons too. Nagging injuries have spoiled the debut of rookie wide receiver Julio Jones. The Falcons will trade reps from Jones now if they can have him healthy down the stretch, including a week 16 matchup against the Saints.

First-year Head Coach Jim Harbaugh is the talk of the league. All he did was turn around a San Francisco 49ers team that most figured to be in contention for Andrew Luck. San Francisco is 9-1, and they can thank their relative good fortune with injuries. They beat the Giants with Frank Gore on the sidelines two weeks ago, and looked no worse for wear while Braylon Edwards sat out earlier in the season.