NFL Week 1 Betting Lessons: Bet The Under Early On

In 2010, 10 season openers went UNDER the total. It was 9-6-1 in 2009 and 9-7 in 2008. The theory is sound, the results support the logic. Until last weekend when the theory was shot to hell with 12 of 16 games going OVER the closing totals.

“Maybe that theory doesn’t hold up when you have so many talented QBs in the league,” says Mike Pickett, NFL analyst at OddsShark.com. “Maybe the days are over for predicting Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees to be held in check early in the season. They are just too good.”

Or Ryan Fitzpatrick (4 TDs passes for the Bills over KC), Cam Newton (422 yards in a loss at Arizona) and countless other less-hyped pivots for that matter.

Bettors also learned that Buffalo might not be as bad as everyone thinks and that a supposedly overrated Cam Newton might be able to play a bit. Both of those lessons are factored into Week 2 lines, although the Panthers open as double-digit home underdogs regardless of Newton’s Week 1 heroics.

Week 1 Point Spread Recap

Five teams were road favorites in Week 1 – only two of them won, but both covered the spread. Foreshadowing their role as Super Bowl contenders, the Eagles were one of those teams, easily burying the Rams as 4-point chalk and leaving the St. Louis roster in emotional and physical tatters.

The other was the Patriots, who justified the early hype and status as early Super Bowl 46 favorites by running up nearly 630 yards in offense at Miami on Monday Night Football.

For the week, underdogs had the edge, going 9-7 against the spread (ATS) according to OddsShark.com. The home teams did well, winning 10 games.

The biggest savior for sportsbooks in Week 1 was the Cowboys road cover at the Jets. Plenty of action was riding on New York and even though Tony Romo choked away the game, the 27-24 loss was still an ATS win for the Cowboys and good news for Vegas and international sportsbooks.

Week 2 opens with three double-digit favorites and the Colts humbled as home underdogs against Cleveland. The Steelers are the biggest chalk on the board, opening at 15 points (already being bet up) at some shops tracked by OddsShark.com.

The marquee battles are the Sunday night game where Michael Vick returns to Atlanta, the Patriots hosting the Chargers and Monday where the Rams visit the Giants in a battle of Week 1 losers. See all the NFL line moves and current consensus action on every game at OddsShark.com and play their free $4,000 Football Bank contest where you win big by picking NFL winners.