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Come Fan with UsSunday, July 5, 2026

Week 10 NFL Opening Lines: Recovering from the worst week ever

Week 9 was the worst in decades for sportsbooks, meaning it was the best week in memory for NFL bettors. Oddsmakers have responded by setting some huge points spreads in Week 10.

Scott Heavey

A week after NFL bettors posted their biggest profits in decades, oddsmakers were licking their wounds and posting plenty of huge point spreads.

Favorites killed the underdogs in Week 9, going 10-4 ATS and creating a bloodbath at many sportsbooks. Week 10 saw three games open with spreads approaching two touchdowns.

“Week 9 is one of, if not the, worst NFL week for a book that I have witnessed in my 18 years as a bookmaker,” said Kevin Bradley of Bovada.lv.


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Coming off a bye week and playing at home against a team they always seem to beat, the New England Patriots were favored by 11 points against the Buffalo Bills.

Similarly, the 49ers come off their bye week as 12.5-point home chalk against visiting St. Louis. And Pittsburgh was laying 13 points as an opening line in the Monday nighter, as they host the 1-8 Kansas City Chiefs.

A fourth game is likely to open as double-digit chalk as well, but the Ravens-Raiders game was left off the board Tuesday due to injury concerns on both sides.

Check out all the opening Week 10 lines at SBNation.

Indianapolis -3 at Jacksonville +3, Total 42.5 - Matchup Report
Trends: Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis

Detroit -1 at Minnesota +1, Total 47 - Matchup Report
Trends: The total has gone OVER in 12 of Detroit’s last 15 games on the road
Minnesota is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Detroit

Oakland at Baltimore - Matchup Report
Trends: The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland’s last 8 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Buffalo +12 at New England -12, Total 51 - Matchup Report
Trends: The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo’s last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England’s last 5 games

Denver -3.5 at Carolina +3.5, Total 47.5 - Matchup Report
Trends: The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver’s last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina’s last 6 games

Atlanta at New Orleans - Matchup Report
Trends: Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta

NY Giants -4 at Cincinnati +4, Total 48.5 - Matchup Report
Trends: NY Giants are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games when playing NY Giants

San Diego +3 at Tampa Bay -3, Total 47.5 - Matchup Report
Trends: The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego’s last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay’s last 5 games

Tennessee +7 at Miami -7, Total 44.5 - Matchup Report
Trends: The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Tennessee’s last 10 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Miami’s last 10 games when playing at home against Tennessee

NY Jets +7.5 at Seattle -7.5, Total 38.5 - Matchup Report
Trends: NY Jets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

Dallas at Philadelphia - Matchup Report
Trends: The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas’s last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 7 games when playing Dallas

St. Louis +12.5 at San Francisco -12.5, Total 38.5 - Matchup Report
Trends: The total has gone UNDER in 8 of St. Louis’s last 10 games on the road
San Francisco is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing St. Louis

Houston PK at Chicago PK, Total 41.5 - Matchup Report
Trends: Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Kansas City +13 at Pittsburgh -13, Total 43 - Matchup Report
Trends: The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

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