I have to start this with a confession. I committed prospect hype. It starts in February with scouting reports. Just a few detailed write ups on what a potential NFL draft pick is capable of and a note on their draft stock. By the end of April, in the week or so before the draft, some of those players have been ticketed for breakaway success, the missing link bound to put a franchise over the top and into the Super Bowl.
Feels Like The First Time: Checking In With The NFL Rookie Class
Remember those NFL draft picks we all questioned? We take a look at how they’re doing one week into the preseason.
The truth is that teams are counting on rookies more than ever, but a general manager worth his salt will not march up to the podium and tell fans to expect the moon from a 22-year-old kid in his first season. The pundits take care of that for them, and I confess to inflating expectations for rookie players. I can’t help it. Draft pick hype is original sin for football fans.
With that off my chest, how about a very reasoned and rational look at a few of this year’s rookies? Surely one preseason game is never too early to pass judgement, right?
WR Justin Blackmon, Jacksonville Jaguars
Blackmon was one of the more hotly debated picks in the 2012 NFL Draft. A two-time Biletnikoff Award winner at Oklahoma State, he was regarded by many as the top wide receiver in the draft. Others saw him as a more limited fit in the NFL, where press coverage and complex route trees would leave him struggling. There was also the speed issue, with some questioning whether or not he was fast enough to have the makings for a receiver worth such a high draft pick.
He only started practicing this week, missing the Jaguars’ preseason opener because of a delay in contract negotiations.
Big Cat County, SB Nation’s Jaguars blog, says the early returns on Blackmon are positive.
Blackmon reportedly had back-to-back redzone touchdowns on Monday as well, with one of those being a catch in double coverage with the safety bearing down on him, which should be something we see a lot of from Blackmon. Given his skill set and what little we've seen of the Jaguars passing scheme, Blackmon should be an easy, reliable target for Gabbert so long as he catches up to speed with the playbook.
With the addition of Blackmon and his ability to catch the football in traffic and in the redzone, it should be that much easier for Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars offense going forward.
What to watch for: Be reasonable. Receivers usually take some time to learn the game. Blackmon will run with the first team against the Saints this week. New Orleans defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo uses press man, so keep your eye on how Blackmon responds to that.
OLB Melvin Ingram, San Diego Chargers
Aldon Smith and Von Miller set impossibly high standards for rookie pass rushers, and few first-year players are leaned on as heavily as those who can get to the quarterback. Pundits affixed the dreaded "tweener" label to the South Carolina product, questioning what exactly his fit would be. His short arms were also a red flag. His speed and explosiveness were not, and that was on display last week against the Packers.
Bolts from Blue sums up Ingram’s game:
Ingram showed it all on Thursday against the Packers, albeit against a very beat up offensive line. He was an unstoppable force rushing the passer, using technique, speed and pure power. He got to the run and stopped that too. He played a little coverage and tackles a receiver on a short crossing route. He was all over the field, and he's only going to get better. He is officially credited with 2 tackles and 1 QB hit, but that hit led to an Antoine Cason interception and he had another sack where the QB ducked out of his arms and into the arms of Larry English for what should be categorized as a "stolen sack".
What to watch for: San Diego plays Dallas this week, and the Cowboys' offense was in preseason form against Oakland. Ingram's speed will be tested against the offensive line, but this will be a good week for fans to get a closer look at his work against the run.
DT Dontari Poe, Kansas City Chiefs
The biggest question people had about Poe as a draft pick was whether or not he was too raw to be a first rounder. Kansas City saw the total package and a high ceiling, taking him with the 11th overall pick. That rawness speaks directly to his ability to push the pocket. Few questioned whether or not the 346-pound defensive tackle would have any problems clogging running lanes. Teams want the remarkable athleticism Poe showed off at the Combine -- a 40 time under five seconds! -- to translate into a pass rushing threat as well.
Arrowhead Pride has been keeping a close eye on Poe, and caught head coach Romeo Crennel walking back expectations following last week's game against the Cardinals.
“My young (Dontari) Poe,” Crennel continued, “he’s young and he’s still learning, but he shows some desire and some want-to.”
So basically he tried hard. This follows what Crennel said last week -- that Poe has “a ways to go.” It’s early. I’m not concerned yet. But this is a sign that we need to temper our expectations for Poe early on.
What to watch for: It's prefectly reasonable for Poe to take some time, but a team still needs to get some production from a first-round pick in year one. Poe has enough talent to get there, and will have a chance to show it off against the Rams' second-team offensive line this week. St. Louis is already without its starting center, Scott Wells, so watch for Poe to be a little more disruptive. He will also see plenty of runs up the middle, testing his ability to stop the run.
S Harrison Smith, Minnesota Vikings
Remember the world turned upside down at the end of the first round in his year’s draft? The Vikings started all the head scratching when they traded up to draft Notre Dame safety Harrison Smith, who many pegged as a second rounder.
Smith was a bright spot last week as the 49ers moved the ball at will against the Vikings. He blew up a Keiland Williams play behind the line for a loss, the only running play against Minnesota that did not gain yards. Smith will work with the first team this week against the Bills.
Over at the Daily Norseman, they say Smith deserves a shot with the ones.
But Smith only solves -- maybe -- one of the safety positions. What little I saw of him looked good, but he is a rookie and he’ll have a learning curve. I don’t see it hurting, though, as inserting Smith in the lineup is, if nothing else, addition by subtraction. Raymond and Sanford looked very tentative and confused the few series they were in, and Smith had more positive plays than those two combined.
What to watch for: Smith's athleticism and smarts left few doubting his ability against the run. The big test for him will be working in coverage against Buffalo's starters. He's bound to see Stevie Johnson some this week, and that should give observers an idea about his readiness to go one-on-one with the league's bigger receivers.
DE Bruce Irvin, Seattle Seahawks
The Irvin pick was the draft’s first real WTF? moment. I clearly remember a gasp and a few seconds of quiet from startled media members at Radio City Music Hall when the pick was announced. How dare a team defy conventional wisdom?
Irvin’s burst and ability to get to the quarterback left few doubting his fit as a pass rusher, and Field Gulls points out that Irvin had those qualities on full display last week, along with the need for more refinement:
There was one instance (might have been his first play on the field) where he stunted to the inside and had an open lane to Hasselbeck, but the former Seattle QB was able to get rid of the ball before Irvin reached him. Regardless, the speed was on display on that play, and you got just a small sample of the type of speed this guy brings to the defense.
He explodes out of his coil and keeps the pads low when hitting the edge. He never outright blew by anyone on Saturday, and struggled to turn back to the inside when the outside edge was sealed, so he’ll need to continue developing a repertoire that will make him a threat beyond just out-running his opponent to the edge.
What to watch for: Against Denver, the inevitable comparisons with Von Miller will get tossed around, and you should probably ignore them lest they plant the seed of unreasonable expectations. How does Irvin do when he is not rushing the passer? More importantly watch how he looks charging in on Peyton Manning.
This was another one of those picks where people felt like the team reached. Nevertheless, the Giants needed to upgrade their running backs, and this was their only shot at getting one of the draft’s best. One issue pundits pointed for Wilson was his tendency to go big or go nowhere. Looking for the big play is much harder to do in the NFL.
Big Blue View noted the ups and downs from the rookie’s first game:
First-round pick David Wilson is one of those guys from whom there was good and bad. A 26-yard run and a 48-yard kickoff return on the positive side. A handful of negative runs, a blown play where he went the wrong way and a missed blocking assignment that ended with quarterback David Carr taking a big hit on the negative side.
What to watch for: Wilson and the Giants get the Jets this week, a team that was pretty stingy against the run last year. How much time will he see against the starting defense? More importantly, will he show the vision and patience to add up those much smaller gains?
What other first-round picks will you be watching this week, in the non-Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III category?
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