There are few teams in the NFL that wouldn't admit that they have at least a little extra disdain for the New England Patriots. You can claim East Coast bias, and that probably plays a part, but there are plenty of good reasons why the Pats habitually find themselves playing in primetime. They are the easiest to team to love to hate, with a frumpy coach and a quarterback made up of equal parts automaton, pop star, and Napoelon.
Ravens vs. Patriots 2013, AFC Championship game preview: How far can Baltimore go on emotion?
The Baltimore Ravens, coming off an emotional win, enter Sunday’s AFC Championship Game as big underdogs against the New England Patriots. The team is fired up for revenge, but how far can emotion take them against a well-oiled Pats squad?
Doug Pensinger
On the other end are the Baltimore Ravens, a team that wheezed into the playoffs on four losses in five games to end the regular season. On paper, the Ravens don't have the talent to matchup up man-for-man against the Pats. They played outstanding football against the No. 1-seeded Denver Broncos last week, however, and Ray Lewis' return may be the biggest reason why. Lewis, returning from a torn triceps, has 30 tackles over his last two games, and is the unquestioned spiritual leader of the team. He has announced he will retire after the season, making Sunday's game potentially the last of his 17-year career.
Each of the last three meetings between the Pats have been decided by three points or less. The Ravens are out to avenge last year’s AFC Championship Game loss to the Pats, decided by a dropped Lee Evans touchdown and a biffed Billy Cundiff field goal. This year’s iteration should be a lot of fun.
Meet the Patriots
The Patriots had a lot of success with an up-tempo offense this season. They led the NFL with 1,191 plays from scrimmage this season, on their way to 34.8 points per game. At the center of it all is Brady, who turned in an MVP caliber season with 4,827 yards passing, 34 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Backing him was the Pats' most effective running game since the 2008-2009 season. They averaged 4.2 yards per carry behind Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead and Shane Vereen.
Brady won't have Rob Gronkowski at his disposal due to a broken forearm. The Pats aren't starving for targets as long as the have Brandon Lloyd, Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez, but Gronkowski's presence would have made Pats even more formidable. An improving defense makes the loss easier to swallow, at least. The Pats have given up less than 20 points in five of their last seven games played.
Meet the Ravens
Let's take a moment to appreciate how well Joe Flacco played last week. On the coldest day of any NFL matchup played this season, he went 18-for-31 passing for 331 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions against the league's No. 3 pass defense. Peyton Manning's stats: 28-for-42, 290 yards, three touchdowns, two picks. Flacco isn't the most consistent quarterback in the league, but when he is good, he is very good. Factor in Ray Rice, and the Ravens can be downright deadly on offense.
Let's take a moment to appreciate that Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs are even on the field. Suggs started the year on the PUP list with a torn Achilles' tendon. Both linebackers have come back, against the odds, from torn arm muscles. Lewis' exploits were noted above, but Suggs' 10-tackle, two-sack performance last week deserves just as much praise. The Ravens finished in the bottom of half of the league in total defense for the first time since 2002, but they also haven't been at full strength. They are as close to 100 percent right now as they have been all season.
Local Takes: Patriots
Greg Knopping of the SB Nation blog Pats Pulpit breaks down exactly how the Patriots can move on without Rob Gronkowski.
Yesterday's game plan seemed to indicate that the Patriots will go with more two tight end sets than three-receiver sets going forward with Gronkowski out. Nonetheless, I see snaps going both Branch's and Hoomanawanui's way. I probably should also mention Daniel Fells. Fells was given a three year deal in the offseason, but hasn't lived up to his contract. In fact, he was a healthy scratch behind Hoomanawanui for yesterday's game against the Texans. Going forward, I'd expect him to be the team's #3 tight end. At this point, however, I wouldn't expect him to be a huge factor into whatever game plan the Patriots draw up against the Ravens, or potentially the Falcons or 49ers in the Super Bowl.
Local Takes: Ravens
Ravens blogger ‘lastcallbmore’ details the team’s road to redemption over at Baltimore Beat Down.
As every Raven fan remembers Joe Flacco out-played “Mr. Fantastic” Tom Brady in a game that the Ravens should have won if it were not for a dropped pass by Lee Evans or at least tied if it were not for a missed field goal by Billy Cundiff.
There is no question that these two teams are much different than they were at this point last season but the more things change the more they stay the same. The Ravens have up-graded at kicker and at the third receiver position in hopes that Joe Flacco’s efforts will be better received by the rest of the team this time around.
Yet again it is just another chance for this Ravens team to finish what they started last season and go all the way to the Super Bowl, where maybe, just maybe a familiar face in Jim Harbaugh will be waiting with his San Francisco 49ers. This would be the perfect scenario to end the perfect post season. Maybe John could finally beat Jim on the biggest of stages.
Follow the Fun
Be sure to check out SB Nation’s team blogs, Pats Pulpit and Baltimore Beat Down, for more analysis and highlights from the game.
Add these fine follows to your Twitter timeline:
Armchair Coaching for the Baltimore Ravens sbn.to/106T7ih
— Greg Knopping (@patspulpit) January 15, 2013
Justin Tucker Erases Images Of Cundiff Past sbn.to/W4026r
— Bruce Raffel (@BaltimoreBeatdo) January 15, 2013
Ninkovich says Ravens are a different team than the one they faced back in September.
— Christopher Price (@cpriceNFL) January 14, 2013
Haloti Ngata said Ravens wanted rematch with PatsBig reason is how last season ended.Feels like you have to go thru Pats to get to SB
— Jeff Zrebiec (@jeffzrebiecsun) January 14, 2013
Prediction
The sports books really don’t like the Ravens in this game, and at a glance they have good reason. The Patriots are 5-1 in AFC Championship Games under Bill Belichick, and have lost just two games at home this year. They seem to be a much improved squad from the team that lost in Baltimore in Week 3, with five of their last eight wins coming by double digits. The thing is, the Ravens were big underdogs last week too, and managed to outplay the Broncos despite hostile and frigid conditions. If the good Joe Flacco shows up, Baltimore has a shot to pull of the upset. If not, it could get ugly. And if he’s somewhere in between ...
The pick: 34-30, Patriots
Odds
The Patriots opened the week as 7.5-point favorites, but are now giving as many as 10 points from some book, according to Oddsshark.
Next Week
The winner of Sunday's game will be preparing to face the winner of the NFC Championship Game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl XLVII.
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