With five days left until the NFL's (ridiculously early) trade deadline, the hottest name in the rumor mill is Browns receiver Josh Gordon. After serving a two-game suspension for sippin' on sizzurp, Gordon wasted no time in reminding folks why the Browns were willing to gamble on a supplemental draft prospect with character questions. He hauled in 25 catches, 429 yards and four TDs over the Browns' next four games while working with a pair of QBs who aren't exactly poised to create the next Montana/Young controversy. When you roll the dice, that's the kind of pass-line payoff you're looking for.
Browns WR Josh Gordon, slightly used and on sale?
Breaking down the trade market for the Browns’ TNT (Talented n’ Troubled) wideout.
Ron Schwane-USA TODAY Sports
The next time the NFL leans on Gordon for getting his lean on, however, it will be to the tune of a full-year suspension. That’s a D.J. Screw job that the Browns would prefer to avoid, and the likeliest reason that they’d be willing to part with a player of Gordon’s obvious talents. The appeal of a Rachel Phelps-style Teddy Bridgewater tank job also can’t be overlooked, particularly in the wake of Cleveland’s previous TRich-to-Indy deal.
Of course every Gordon rumor has been met with official denials from the Cleveland brass, and they might not just be whistlin’ Dixie. Gordon’s talent is undeniable, and his youth and cap-friendly deal would make him an easy fit with whatever the Browns plan to do on offense in 2014 and beyond. It’s very unlikely that they’ll simply hold a deadline fire sale for Gordon, but it IS likely that they’d listen very carefully to the right offer. And per a “league source”, a couple of standing offers from other clubs include both a player and a high draft choice.
So what kind of offer would it take to get Cleveland to pull the trigger?
The value of a draft choice hardly needs to be belabored, and the prevailing notion is that it would take a second-rounder (which would approximate the second-rounder Cleveland used on Gordon initially) to get a deal done. If we assume a second-rounder as a table stake, the player or players that might get included in such a deal make for some interesting speculation. Depth is at such a premium in the NFL that it’s rare to find a club with ‘spare parts’ lying about that could genuinely interest another team. What’s more, as funny as this sounds Cleveland isn’t a team with a ton of holes. Their dreadful QB situation has helped to mask a defense with quality at all three levels as well as a reasonable offensive line. Outside of a quality quarterback, the kind of players that would most likely catch Cleveland’s attention would be:
Young Corners -Joe Haden is one of the NFL's best, but Buster Skrine and Chris Owens offer some more room for improvement.
Wide Receivers - Cleveland would be creating a big hole in its pass-catching corps by dealing Gordon, and getting a decent receiver prospect in return would help them get full value for their draft choice by not having to spend another pick on a wideout.
Running Backs - Cleveland learned to their sorrow that the running back position isn't valuable enough to warrant the #3 selection in the entire draft. Of course, it's not so valueless that you can just roll with Willis McGahee and Chris Ogbonnaya and call it a day, either.
Interior OL - Alex Mack is an upper-echelon center, but he'll likely command an upper-echelon payday this offseason and the Browns may choose to spend their cap dollars elsewhere. Guard Shawn Lauvao has struggled mightily in his return from injury thus far this season, and Cleveland might have its sights set higher than a Jason Pinkston/Lauvao combo on the interior.
3-4 DEs - Cleveland is getting stout two-way play from Desmond Bryant, but the rest of their DE rotation has only managed seven combined sacks and QB hits across 310 pass rush snaps. Some more interior pass-rush pop is always welcome, and could help atone for slow starts from OLBs Paul Kruger and Barkevious Mingo.
OK, so now we’ve got an idea of what the Browns might be looking for in a potential Gordon deal. The flip side of the coin is the list of potential suitors - which teams are likeliest to go after Gordon, and what’s the most attractive package that they’d be willing to give up?
The Lions are locked in a battle for divisional supremacy with Green Bay, and not just in the immediate term. If Jay Cutler departs Chicago in free agency while the Bears' D continues to age like they drank from the wrong Grail, Detroit could find itself in a de facto two-team race for the next two or three seasons. One problem over that entire time horizon, though - the Packers have Aaron Rodgers. To keep up, the Lions will need to maximize their firepower, and do so in a way that caters to Matt Stafford. Stafford has a magnificent arm and a penchant for sack avoidance, but the only times he approaches efficiency are when he fires the ball to Calvin Johnson. And, triple-teamed Hail Mary TDs aside, that's not an approach that's going to equal the Packers' cyborg-led assault over the long haul.
So why not give Stafford another high-end downfield weapon? Stafford doesn't have tire-swing accuracy, but he can throw it into a pickup truck bed from 50 yards out and that's about the effective window that Gordon provides with his athleticism. The Lions have yet to find an effective way to punish teams for using every coverage variant they can against Megatron - including the hilarious double punt gunner gambit - but some sideline strikes to Gordon might loosen things up. Or if they don't, hey - keep throwing sideline strikes to Gordon! Factor in the acres of space that tandem would provide for Reggie Bush to get his groove on and you've got
Detroit’s Best Offer:
WR Ryan Broyles or WR Kris Durham
RB Joique Bell
2014 2nd-round selection
Broyles flashed quickness and slickness when healthy, but his decidedly non-AP-like return from knee surgery makes him a piece that Detroit doesn’t really need at the moment (and could make him fit nicely with a tank-tastic 2013 approach). Durham is a big downfield target that doesn’t approach Gordon’s explosiveness but who could fill a role once Cleveland upgrades elsewhere. Joique Bell would immediately become Cleveland’s most talented back by a country mile, and could completely obviate the need to address that position in next year’s draft. It’s also possible that the Browns could fancy a young corner like the Lions’ Bill Bentley, but a historically secondary-poor team like Detroit might be loath to part with anyone who can walk and chew gum in their defensive backfield.
Previewing Week 8
Despite a 2-4 record, Washington is still alive in the NFC East and shouldn't give up hope for a Wild Card berth, either. The best move they could conceivably make would be grabbing the Bills' Jarius Byrd to shore up their horrific safety corps, but if that deal's not on the table they should give a glance to the other side of the ball. With RGIII showing more signs of life by the week, the Redskins' offense could be poised for big things. They've got an all-around #1-ish guy in Pierre Garcon and an emerging move TE in Jordan Reed, but the rest of their weapons lack panache.
Gordon would immediately become a devastating downfield threat for a QB who's already flashed elite deep-ball chops, particularly off play-action. If the Cowboys chose to lock Garcon down with Brandon Carr again in their December rematch, Gordon could terrorize Mo Claiborne and the Cowboys' sub-par safeties. No team might have better odds of keeping Gordon on the straight and narrow, as Griffin's renowned leadership skills plus his history with Gordon at Baylor could help RGIII exercise authority on the wayward wideout. Finally, you think Dan Snyder wouldn't welcome a conversational respite from the franchise's mascot controversy?
Washington’s Best Offer:
WR Leonard Hankerson OR WR Aldrick Robinson
2014 2nd-round selection
Washington could offer the Browns a choice between a reliable chain-mover/red zone producer in Hankerson and a flashy speedster in Robinson. Beyond, that, though, Washington doesn't have a ton else to offer in the player department as they wouldn't deal rookie corner David Amerson and their 3-4 end position is a M*A*S*H unit. Roy Helu might trip the Browns' trigger, but as he's integral to the Skins' hurry-up package he might represent a higher price than Washington is willing to pay.
With the possible exceptions of Joe Flacco and Geno Smith, no contending QB is being asked to do more with less than Cam Newton - and Newton would swap O-lines with either of those dudes in a heartbeat. An aging Steve Smith and a marginally-above-average Greg Olsen simply aren't enough to overtake Drew Brees, and it's time to go ahead and add Brandon LaFell to the Frank Costello All-Stars - if he could've become a quality #2 wideout, he woulda.
Gordon would be an elite downfield weapon when coupled with Newton’s live arm. Assuming the Panthers aren’t totally devoted to running the least efficient and most brutalistic offense possible (which, admittedly, is quite an assumption), some of the same play action shots out of Pistol Option looks that worked so well for RGIII last season could look very sharp in Carolina blue. The Panthers’ tremendous defensive front seven makes them a dangerous opponent. If Gordon could open up the rest of their offense, Carolina could make a legitimate run at the division while becoming the favorite for the NFC’s second wild-card berth as the proverbial ‘team no one wants to play’ - at least until they saw Ron Rivera on the sideline.
Carolina’s Best Offer:
WR Brandon LaFell
2014 2nd-round selection
It’s possible that Carolina could convince the Browns that LaFell needs a chance of scenery, and a very carefully curated LaFell highlight reel does hold a bit of intrigue. Carolina might also be willing to part with one of its disappointing Joshes at cornerback if Cleveland was interested in a reclamation project. Not much help on the interior OL, though - if Carolina had any guards worth a damn they’d be suiting up on Sundays.
Last year's NFC Super Bowl representatives were as strong as any team in the conference before enduring the twin losses of Michael Crabtree and Aldon Smith. Now the 49ers find themselves looking up at the rival Seahawks, who have both a game and a head-to-head victory in hand. Harbaugh's bunch has found CenturyLink field a decidedly inhospitable environ on its last two trips, and if they want to avoid a third visit in January they need to push all their chips to the center of the table.
Gordon would be a great fit with Colin Kaepernick's cannon arm, and he and Vernon Davis could make for a deadly post-fly route combo while opening up space for Anquan Boldin to bump and grind underneath. Harbaugh could also prove to be the kind of leader that could get and hold Gordon's attention.
San Francisco’s Best Offer:
WR Jonathan Baldwin OR WR Quinton Patton
RB Marcus Lattimore
2014 2nd-round selection
Let's face it - the Niners could trump any other contender if they decide they want Gordon badly enough. They've got spare second AND third round selections in addition to their own, and a roster replete with interesting (and potentially tradeable) young talent like Lattimore, CB Perrish Cox and DEs Lawrence Okoye and Quinton Dial.
San Francisco may be content to stand pat and wait for Michael Crabtree to to return, but Achilles injuries tend to take well over a year to heal completely. If the 49ers do decide to ante up for Gordon, the league’s hottest divisional rivalry could become downright incandescent.
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