Super Bowl prop bets 2014: Will the lead change in the 2nd half?

Will the Super Bowl be decided by halftime? The betting odds say yes.

Jan 29, 2014, 8:01 PM UTC

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

With a matchup of the No. 1 defense taking on the No. 1 offense in the NFL, many are expecting a close game between Denver and Seattle. The idea, however, of a back-and-forth battle well into the second half isn’t what some oddsmakers have in mind.

Among the bevy of other prop bets, online oddsmaker Bovada is offering a prop bet of whether or not there will be a lead change during the second half of Super Bowl XLVIII. If the game ends up being as close as some think it could, that bet seems like a no-brainer. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks will score, Peyton Manning and the Broncos will answer. Back-and-forth the offenses and defenses will go, trading big plays. Not exactly. The option for no lead changes in the second half is actually favored with minus-160 odds. Betting yes will get you plus-140 odds.

Will there be a Lead Change in the Second Half?

Yes (Lead Change in 2nd Half) -- +140

No (Lead Change in 2nd Half) -- -160

On the surface, those odds may be surprising, but they are in line with recent results, especially if you think the Broncos will win. Denver is 4-1 in its last five games. During that span, there has never been a lead change in the second half. In their four wins, the Broncos jumped out to halftime leads and held on. In many cases, they've expanded their lead enough in the second half, that even with late rallies by New England and San Diego, the Broncos never trailed.

Seattle's recent games have been much closer. The lead changed once in the second half of the NFC Championship game, with the margin never growing larger than seven points. In total, there has been a second-half lead change in eight of Seattle's 18 games this season. That was just slightly higher than Denver which saw a second-half lead change in six of its games this season.

Regardless of who you think will win the Super Bowl, this prop could be an interesting bet depending on how you see the game going. If you think it’s going to be a back-and-forth contest for four quarters, the odds are in your favor. At the same time, if you are of the opinion the game is going to be a blowout, then the no bet is also attractive, even with worse odds.