Super Bowl prop bets: How many yards will Russell Wilson throw for?
Russell Wilson’s passing totals are one of the many things you can bet on in the Super Bowl.
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The Seahawks are a run-first offense. There is very little debating that. In fact, Seattle was just one of two teams to run more than it threw this season. As a result, Russell Wilson didn't put up prolific passing numbers in many games. His yardage numbers dropped even lower late in the season, and oddsmakers aren't expecting a big passing day against Denver in the Super Bowl.
The over/under for Wilson’s passing yardage was set at 199.5, according to online oddsmaker Bovada. That is nearly 100 yards less than the total set for Peyton Manning. Wilson’s total shouldn’t be much of surprise, he’s averaged just 160.8 passing yards per game in his last five. Following an efficient and effective performance against New Orleans in Week 13, Wilson’s production began to drop off. He topped 200 yards just twice in the six games since. Part of the reason for that is he hasn’t thrown the ball a lot, never attempting more than 27 passes. Still, his efficiency numbers declined, with him topping 8.0 yards per attempt just once. The recent slide came after he averaged 8.8 yards per attempt during the first 12 games of the regular season.
When considering the over/under prop bet, however, you also have to take opponent into consideration. Wilson and the Seahawks faced some very good pass defenses during the late-season stretch, with five of the six ranking in the top 10 pass defenses, according to Football Outsiders. Denver didn't fare as well in pass defense, ranking 21st according to Football Outsiders. The Broncos allowed 6.6 yards per attempt during the regular season, 15th in the NFL.
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The other important factor is the score of the game. When Seattle gets a lead, the Seahawks turn to the run game and limit Wilson’s opportunities to throw. A strong rushing attack and great defense has gotten them this far. The Broncos may be their toughest opponent yet, however, and if Denver is able to build a lead, Wilson could throw a lot more. Seattle trailed 20-0 at halftime in the playoffs against Atlanta last season. Wilson came out firing in the second half and wound up throwing for 385 yards. So if the Broncos build a double-digit lead, Wilson’s attempts will likely increase.
The various factors make this an interesting prop bet and one that depends on how you see the game playing out. If you think the game will be close or the Seahawks will be in the lead, the under may be the best bet as the rushing attack will lead the way. If you expect the Broncos to win, and win big, the over could be the way to go just by the sheer increase in pass attempts.
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