NFL picks against the spread, Week 6: Building on a big week

Just when I think I am never going to figure out the world of NFL gambling, Week 5 happens. Over the first four weeks of the 2014 NFL season, I bounced between 2-3 and 3-2 performances, and was sitting at 9-11 through the first quarter of the season. Fortunately, I bounced back in a big way in Week 5, going 5-0 with my SuperContest picks.

My success in Week 5 shows just how important luck and fortuitous bounces can be in a pick ‘em contest. I had the Cleveland Browns as a pick ‘em against the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee jumped out to a big lead, and it took a furious Cleveland comeback to get the victory. On the other hand, Monday Night Football saw Seattle kick a late, moderately meaningless field goal to secure the cover. I think the Browns game showed Cleveland to be a good team, and thus the pick itself being fairly solid. On the other hand, Seattle struggled at times to put away Washington, and the cover was just as much a little luck as anything else.

And so, we are back for another five picks in the LVH SuperContest. The contest includes more than 1,400 participants picking games each week to see who can come out on top by the end of the season. The 5-0 performance last week has me now sitting at 14-11 on the season. I am in the top half of the contest, which is really all I was hoping for at the beginning of the year. If I can finish closer to first than last, that’s a step in the right direction!

CLEVELAND BROWNS over Pittsburgh Steelers (+2): The Browns are officially that plucky fun team that fans can get behind. Given the Browns struggles, a moderately successful version of this team is going to be a fan favorite. They have a long history of struggles against the Steelers, sitting at 2-20 straight up in their last 22 matchups. Pittsburgh took the first game between these two this season in Pittsburgh, but it had to withstand a furious Browns comeback. I think the Browns continue their solid start to 2014 with a win over their rivals.

BUFFALO BILLS over New England Patriots (-3): New England put together a big win over the Cincinnati Bengals, and naturally that got people asking if the Patriots “are back.” The Patriots will have their share of solid performances this season, but they are neither gone nor back. They’re just a team that is good enough to beat quality teams at home, but is not what they once were. Buffalo finalized its new ownership and there will be plenty of emotion in the stands on Sunday. That might not be the best reason to bet on them, but much like the Browns, I think they can overcome recent struggles against New England (2-7-1 ATS in last 10 home games against the Patriots).

San Diego Chargers over OAKLAND RAIDERS (+7): The new coach factor is always tough when it comes to wagering. The Raiders fired their coach heading into their bye, and now roll out Tony Sparano. In spite of this wild card, I prefer to take the red hot Chargers. San Diego is 4-1 on the season, and 5-0 ATS. Normally they are a second-half team, but they have figured something out and are rolling lately. Divisional matchups can be a tough one, but I’ll stick with the hot team.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS over Dallas Cowboys (+8): I have to stick with the Seahawks at home. They are solid enough on the road, but at home they are darn near unbeatable. Dallas is playing well, and if they can get the run game going, it will make for an interesting contest. However, Seattle is playing the run well, and an offensive-reliant team like the Cowboys is going to struggle in the noise of Century Link Field.

San Francisco 49ers over ST. LOUIS RAMS (+3.5): The 49ers are 3-2 on the season, but 2-3 ATS thus far. They face a Rams squad that is looking fairly decent with Austin Davis in at quarterback. The Rams are 1-3, but they finally showed signs of life last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. I’m going with the 49ers primarily because they are expected to have Vernon Davis back in the lineup, and they have been a strong road team under Jim Harbaugh. The 49ers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as road favorites. Additionally, they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Monday Night Football games.