Through six weeks, NFL teams have begun taking their proper places among league hierarchy. There are the top teams, both surprising and not -- say, the Dallas Cowboys and the Denver Broncos, respectively -- and then there's a crusty layer of bottom feeders, teams we can quite confidently say are already looking ahead to the 2015 NFL Draft.
Seasons of hope: The NFL’s worst teams can get better by looking at the past
The Raiders, Jaguars, Jets and Buccaneers have been the NFL’s worst teams through six weeks, but by no means should it be a surprise if any of them suddenly become playoff contenders. It has happened before.
The Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have just two wins among them. They also have the four worst point differentials thus far this season, together with an average of minus-76.25 -- or in other words, an expected loss by nearly two touchdowns every time they take the field.
The Jaguars are at the very bottom of the pile, with a point differential of minus-104 on the season. That’s nearly twice as bad as the Raiders’ minus-55, which is little consolation to Oakland much less Jacksonville, whose awful differential has actually improved by 14 points from the same point last season (hooray!) These four teams went a combined 64-128 over their last three seasons, for a neat 33 percent winning percentage and a single best season record of 8-8 over that span. They suck, and should continue to suck for as long as we can reasonably project.
“Should” isn’t “will,” however, and by the grace of the league’s long history featuring many, many teams, outliers have tumbled out of the mire that may prove instructive for this year’s horrible teams. For your edification, meet the three teams with the worst point differentials through six weeks that still went on to make the playoffs.
1992 San Diego Chargers (Through Week 6: 1-4, PD: minus-55)
The 1992 Chargers are the only NFL team to ever start 0-4 and still land in the playoffs, and so their story gets tromped out often by teams that start 0-for-whatever. They were a moderately talented roster that became an exemplar of Sticking To It, all behind a doe-eyed, first-year head coach in Bobby Ross. How they reeled off 11 wins in their final 12 games is still unclear.
Junior Seau celebrates an interception, Sept. 6, 1992 (Getty) Ross joined the Chargers fresh off five seasons at Georgia Tech that included a national title in 1990, and promptly stunk. The Chargers lost starting quarterback John Friesz to injury in the preseason and wallowed behind Bob Gagliano and Stan Humphries in opening season losses to Kansas City, Denver and Pittsburgh. After the Pittsburgh loss, Ross had to hold an impromptu summit with GM Bobby Beathard. It wasn’t a good sign, but the leadership propped itself up.
Beathard, via a Sept. 21, 1992, article in the Los Angeles Times:
“Bobby’s just very tough on himself,” Beathard said. “But it’s not the coach. This guy is fantastic.
“When we talked I told him it sure as hell isn’t his fault. He just wanted to sit down and talk. It was nothing big or anything like that. But I just think he’s frustrated.”
The Chargers got blanked, 27-0, by the Houston Oilers in their next game, but scored their first win of the season, 17-6, over the Seattle Seahawks the week after that. Then they had a bye, and came out of it firing. The Chargers beat the Indianapolis Colts 34-14, and scored fewer than 20 points just twice the rest of the regular season. Humphries settled into a solid starter, throwing 15 touchdowns to 10 interceptions after throwing one touchdown to eight interceptions through the Chargers' first five games. It was all the Chargers needed with a defense that allowed the fourth-fewest points in the league.
In a fitting reflection of the team's low point, the Chargers shut out the Chiefs, 17-0, in the first round of the playoffs. They got buzzed the next week, 31-0 by Dan Marino's Dolphins. Humphries threw four interceptions while playing with a separated shoulder, before echoing his head coach's humility in the post-game, telling reporters "It's all my fault."
What we learned: That young teams with rookie coaches are incredibly malleable, that winning is infectious, and that maintaining a positive attitude in a cynical environment, though it seems like a cheesy trope, can lead to remarkable results.
Who could benefit: The Jaguars. Gus Bradley may be the most upbeat coach in the NFL, which is good because the Jaguars are in the midst of a long rebuild. The Jags are getting blown out on a weekly basis, but they have the young talent to potentially flip the switch. Blake Bortles could be Bradley's Humphries, a young passer who clicks and elevates everyone around him, including an already-talented defense.
1970 Cincinnati Bengals (Through Week 6: 1-5, PD: minus-63)
Bengals quarterback Virgil Carter drops back against the Colts, Dec. 26, 1970 (Getty)
The 1970 Bengals were either up or down, and rarely could you say they occupied the space between those two extremes. The season was their first in the NFL after the merger. They beat the Raiders in a brand new Riverfront Stadium, 31-21, then promptly fell to pieces.
The Bengals lost six straight games after starting the season with a win. They averaged just 12 points per game over that stretch behind an offense led primarily by third-year quarterback Virgil Carter. Projected starter Greg Cook landed on injured reserve before the regular season began, forcing Carter into action. Carter was barely serviceable by the standards of the era -- 51.44 completion percentage, nine touchdowns to nine interceptions, just one game over 200 yards passing -- and not nearly good enough to prop up the team by himself.
The '70 Bengals found their spark behind defense and special teams, starting with the streak-breaking 43-14 win over the Buffalo Bills. The Bengals set an NFL record that day with 31 points scored as a result of special teams. They scored touchdowns on a kickoff return and blocked field goal attempt, and added five field goals of their own and four extra points.
The Bengals ranked 21st out of 26 teams in total yardage allowed over the final seven weeks of the season, but they had 28 (!) takeaways over that stretch to lead the league after recording a league-worst 11 up to that point. It wasn’t a great defensive unit by any means, but it was significantly more opportunistic during the Bengals’ seven-game winning streak to end the regular season.
The running game picked up steam, as well. Jess Phillips and Paul Robinson led the league's best rushing attack over the season's second half after appearing mediocre during the first half. While rolling over opponents 1,268 yards at a league-best 4.68 yards per carry, the Bengals managed to win all but one of their remaining games by double digits, and scored rematch wins over the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns and Houston Oilers.
Their momentum came to a halt in a 17-0 loss to the Baltimore Colts in the first round of the playoffs, but at least that Colts team went on to win the Super Bowl.
What we learned: You don’t need a damn quarterback, so stop worrying about it.
Who could benefit: The Jets are sitting in the middle of the league in terms of total defense, and that's despite having fewer takeaways -- three -- than only the New Orleans Saints. That inability to flip possession has only exacerbated Geno Smith's problems, who has waffled between good or bad and is now settling on something we can call mediocre.
If turnover fortune suddenly changes for the Jets as it did the Bengals, they are poised to make a run with a top 10 rushing attack and a hungry defense. If there’s any year to unexpectedly win the AFC East, this is it.
2002 New York Jets (Through Week 6: 1-4, PD: minus-87)
The 2002 Jets were awful in September. They managed to start the season with an overtime win over the Buffalo Bills, but then suffered a succession of humiliations -- 44-7 to the 9-7 Patriots, 30-3 to the Dolphins and 28-3 to a Jaguars team that would finish 6-10.
Chad Pennington celebrates a touchdown run, Nov. 24, 2002 (Getty) Bob Glauber wrote after the Jaguars’ game that Herm Edwards’ time in New York had gone “three-and-out.” In recapping the game, the New York Post’s Jay Greenberg questioned the team’s spiritual makeup:
In yesterday’s 28-3 loss to the Jaguars, the Jets lost Vinnie Testaverde to a bruised shoulder on the first series and Wayne Chrebet to a bruised knee for much of the second and third quarters. But for three weeks, in which they have been outscored an incomprehensible 102-13, they have played like a team that has entirely lost its soul.
Either the failure to belong on the same field with New England three weeks ago took a much deeper hit on the Jets’ confidence than they originally believed, or they are not nearly as good as they still say they believe.
Vinny Testaverde should be commended for his long career, but he had a bad four games before finding the bench. Against the Dolphins, he went 14-for-25 for 125 yards -- a paltry 5.0 yards per attempt and 36.2 passer rating. He threw just four passes against Jaguars before getting hurt and giving way to the man who would turn the Jets' season: Chad Pennington.
The Jets lost their next game against the Kansas City Chiefs, but only by four points, and Pennington played well going 22-for-29 for 275 yards, two scores and an interception. He kept playing better as the Jets kept winning. Pennington had the second-best passer rating in the league from Week 7 onward, and New York went on to win eight of 10 games to end the regular season. After Dec. 2, he would not throw another interception before the playoffs.
The Jets hurtled into the postseason in dramatic fashion. They needed the Patriots to beat the Dolphins in Week 17, giving the Jets advantage of the division tiebreaker and a chance to advance provided they could win their finale. Cheers reportedly went up in the Meadowlands when word spread that the Pats had won in overtime. Perhaps high on adrenaline, the Jets dismantled the Green Bay Packers, 42-17, behind four touchdown passes from Pennington.
The Jets obliterated the Indianapolis Colts, 41-0, in the Wild Card round, but weren’t much match for a Raiders team that had already beaten them that season and went on to play in the Super Bowl. Pennington threw his first interception in a month and a half, then tossed another along with two lost fumbles. He played his first truly bad game since taking over full-time for Testaverde, and the Jets had no contingency plan as they fell, 30-10.
The 2002 Jets were remarkable, in that they were somehow able to build Super Bowl aspirations out of an atrocious start. Curtis Martin was distraught after the Raiders loss. Via Rich Cimini, writing then for the New York Daily News:
“It was one of the best seasons,” Curtis Martin said in a somber locker room, “but right now it feels like one of the worst seasons.”
The Jets were so full of hope.
What we learned: That fortune can change in an instant. Sometimes all you need is one moment or player to rally around.
Who could benefit: Any one of our miserable four at this point, but the Raiders received the most recent sign of encouragement. And as with the 2002 Jets, it came in a loss.
The San Diego Chargers were 4-0 and sporting the best secondary in the NFL when they went to Oakland this past weekend. They had to outscore the Raiders 10-0 within the final six minutes to escape with a three-point win. Rookie quarterback Derek Carr had an outstanding day, going 18-for-34 for 282 yards and four touchdowns and an interception.
Carr would have to be Pennington in this scenario, which is a bit unfair because Pennington had already spent two full seasons in the league before taking a feature role. The comparison is also unfortunate, because Pennington struggled immensely with injuries throughout his career.
But we’re just looking for glimmers here, and as long as the history maintains the legacy of the 2002 Jets, there’s hope for anyone that things will get better.
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