The 2014 NFL season is passing through the quarter pole, with the Week 4 teams coming off their byes to play game No. 4. We are slowly starting to figure some teams out, but it may be another few weeks before we really know who is for real and who is a pretender.
NFL picks against the spread, Week 5: Mixing things up with some underdogs
I’m back with my Week 5 NFL picks against the spread. I am currently 9-11 in the SuperContest, so this week’s picks are going to involve going for a few more dogs.
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For example, a team like the Philadelphia Eagles was 3-0 before a narrow loss at the San Francisco 49ers. Neither team really seemed inclined to win that game, so it’s hard to take too much from it for Philly. On the other hand, their three wins to start the season all involved coming back from double-digit deficits. We just don’t know what to make of them.
That is just one of several teams that remains a significant question mark. That also makes picking against the spread a difficult task. It is never “easy,” but when you are not sure which teams are actually good, it gets a little more difficult. And so, we are back for another five picks in the LVH SuperContest. The contest includes more than 1,400 participants picking games each week to see who can come out on top by the end of the season.
After a 2-3 and 3-2 start to the season, I have gone 2-3 each of the last two weeks, and currently sit at 9-11. As always, our partners at OddsShark have staked me and a handful of other participants in the SuperContest. You can track all of us here, and you can follow the standings here. Here are my picks for Week 5, with home team in caps.
Cleveland Browns over TENNESSEE TITANS (EVEN): Consider this a ride on the Browns bandwagon. We don’t know exactly what to make of this Browns squad, but I think they could spring the minor upset. Cleveland is 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games, while Tennessee is 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine. I think Cleveland comes off the bye with a win.
DENVER BRONCOS over Arizona Cardinals (+9): Arizona will be without quarterback Carson Palmer once again. They have a solid defense, but heading into Denver I’m a little skeptical. Denver has been a little bit up and down, but having their bye week to reincorporate Wes Welker a bit more should help. I think Denver wins this one easily.
Kansas City Chiefs over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-5): Alex Smith returns to face a San Francisco squad that will likely be without tight end Vernon Davis. He is listed as questionable, and said there is a small chance he plays on Sunday. The 49ers are winless in the handful of games he has missed. They have numerous weapons, but he could be considered the proverbial straw that stirs the drink. The 49ers can win this game, but it will be a close one.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS over Cincinnati Bengals (EVEN): The Bengals are unbeaten, and have won five of their last six ATS. The Patriots are coming off an ugly loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Consider this sort of in the vein of the Green Bay Packers’ big win over the Chicago Bears last week. Tom Brady is clearly on the downside of his career, but I think he has some big games left in him. I think we see a bounce-back this week.
Seattle Seahawks over WASHINGTON (+8.5): The Seahawks are not quite as good on the road as they are at home, but they do handle bad opponents well. Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games, with the one loss coming against a quality San Diego Chargers squad. Washington is not good. It’s pretty simple at this point. They might pull off some wins here and there, but a quarter of the way into the season, we know Washington is not good.
Here is my full list of picks.
PACKERS vs. Vikings (+9) - Packers
PANTHERS vs. Bears (+1.5) - Panthers
TITANS vs. Browns (EVEN) - Browns
EAGLES vs. Rams (+7) - Eagles
GIANTS vs. Falcons (+4) - Giants
SAINTS vs. Buccaneers (+11.5) - Saints
COWBOYS vs. Texans (+7) - Texans
LIONS vs. Bills (+7.5) - Lions
COLTS vs. Ravens (+3) - Colts
JAGUARS vs. Steelers (-7) - Steelers
BRONCOS vs. Cardinals (+9) - Broncos
49ERS vs. Chiefs (+5) - Chiefs
CHARGERS vs. Jets (+7.5) - Chargers
PATRIOTS vs. Bengals (EVEN) - Patriots
WASHINGTON vs. Seahawks (-8.5) - Seahawks
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