Welcome back for another round of my SuperContest picks. I put together a second consecutive 3-2 performance this past week, which has me climbing in the top half of the SuperContest standings. This past week, I hit on New England, Kansas City and Cleveland, but came up short on Indianapolis and Philadelphia. Naturally it was the two road games where I came up short. I’d consider picking all home teams, but I guarantee you this would all just reverse itself.
NFL picks against the spread, Week 9: Mixing home and road favorites
I’m back with my Week 9 NFL picks against the spread. I’m focusing more on underdogs this week with a few intriguing matchups.
MGM Sports Book
And so, we are back for another five picks in the LVH SuperContest. The contest includes more than 1,400 participants picking games each week to see who can come out on top by the end of the season. The 3-2 performance last week has me now sitting at 16-14, and right around the middle of the pack. As always, our partners at OddsShark have staked me and a handful of other participants in the SuperContest. You can track all of us here, and you can follow the standings here. Here are my picks for Week 9, with home teams in caps.
San Diego Chargers over MIAMI DOLPHINS (-1.5): The Chargers have lost two straight games, while the Dolphins have won two straight. Miami is 8-2 straight up in the last ten games between these two teams, and San Diego is 3-9 against the spread since 2011 in the month of November. So why am I picking them? The Chargers are the better team, and I think we see them recover a bit from their last two weeks.
CLEVELAND BROWNS over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5): This marks the sixth time I have picked the Browns this season, with Cleveland going 3-2 ATS in the first five. Entering the season, I would have predicted no more than one or two Browns picks, if even that. But at 4-3 SU, and 4-2-1 ATS, they seem legit. They face a Bucs squad that has covered twice this season, but generally has been fairly awful. This is a mix of picking the Browns, and happily picking against the Bucs.
NFL Week 9 Picks
Arizona Cardinals over DALLAS COWBOYS (-3.5): Tony Romo is a serious question mark for the Cowboys. There is a good chance he plays on Sunday, but even if he does, he will not be at 100 percent. He is dangerous either way, and of course, this team can ride DeMarco Murray to victory. And yet, that extra half point on the line sucked me in. Arizona is playing strong football, sitting at 6-1 and 5-2 ATS. Dallas stumbled on Monday against Washington, and maybe this is the start of their return to earth, at least a little bit. Either way, I think Arizona keeps this one close.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS over St. Louis Rams (+10): Ten points is a lot for the 49ers to be giving. After all, this is a team that could be without starting linebacker Patrick Willis, and has struggled to really dominate teams for much of their first seven games. On the other hand, they bounced back from a 14-0 deficit to beat the Rams 31-17. This one is at home for the 49ers, and they welcome a Rams squad that is dealing with numerous injuries. Cornerback Janoris Jenkins sat out all three practices this week, and Aaron Donald is looking like a game-time decision. The 49ers have taken the last three against the spread between these two teams, and is 15-0-1 SU in their last 16 home divisional games. I think they roll this one.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS over Denver Broncos (-3): The national story on this game is Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning with the two quarterbacks squaring off for the 16th time. Brady controlled the rivalry early, but Manning has had the upper hand as of late. And yet, there are plenty of interesting stories other than the two veteran quarterbacks. The most notable is this marks only the fifth time since 2002 the Patriots have been a home underdog. Most recently, they were a 2.5-point underdog earlier this season against Cincinnati, and a 2-point underdog last season against Denver. Prior to that, they had not been a home dog since 2005. That is quite the run. The Patriots are 9-1 in their last 10 games as a home dog. While the history is not extensive, they have done well with it.
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