Sitting at 6-3 and on top of the AFC North, the Cleveland Browns find themselves in uncharted waters. They also find themselves with a quarterback conundrum on their hands.
Should the Browns give Brian Hoyer a new contract?
Hoyer’s unexpected success puts pressure on Cleveland to decide if he’s the team’s long-term answer at quarterback ... and how Johnny Manziel factors into its future.
Andy Lyons
Johnny Manziel became the future of the franchise when he was drafted in the first round in May. But the Johnny Football era has been delayed by the surprisingly efficient play of veteran Brian Hoyer, who beat out Manziel in training camp and has provided solid, though unspectacular, play under center. The problem is, Hoyer becomes a free agent in 2015. So the Browns can either pony up starting quarterback money to keep him or let him walk in the offseason and hope Manziel comes through.
Hoyer’s agent, Joe Linta, recently told Peter King that there had been no contract discussions between the two sides since May. Ideally, the Browns would probably like to hold off on a decision until they have a more suitable sample size from Hoyer, but the longer they wait the more likely he could get away in free agency. The Browns need to make a decision, and soon.
Is Hoyer good enough to be a long-term starter?
First things first: the city of Cleveland isn’t exactly in the position to let winning signal callers walk out the door. Of the 20 different quarterbacks the Browns have started since rejoining the NFL in 1999, Hoyer is the only one with a record above .500 with the team. Hoyer may not be the ideal franchise quarterback, but the Browns can’t allow the only reliable option they’ve had under center in the last two decades to up and leave.
And Hoyer has played well. He’s thrown for 2,212 yards and 10 touchdowns and has a passer rating of 90.4. While those aren’t amazing numbers by any stretch of the imagination, they’re solid enough to keep the Browns in the win column. Most importantly, Hoyer is taking care of the football. His four interceptions are tied for the fifth-fewest in the league among quarterbacks with at least 160 attempts.
With that said, Hoyer's completed less than 60 percent of his career passes and has reached the 300-yard mark in a game just once this season (and that was against the awful Buccaneers).
Are the Browns really willing to hand starting quarterback money to a 29-year-old who has spent the majority of his career as a backup? ESPN’s Pat McManamon predicts it would take about $20 million in guaranteed money to lock Hoyer down -- a lot of cash for a guy with just 13 career starts under his belt.
Travel Back to 1995
What about Johnny?
Extending Hoyer of course means sticking Manziel on the bench for the foreseeable future. Head coach Mike Pettine said last month that he’s already getting the sense that the rookie is frustrated by the backup role, and you have to wonder what type of effect a Hoyer extension would have on a guy with noted maturity issues.
Still, jettisoning a reliable veteran for an unproven rookie is a big gamble. Manziel’s ability to translate his otherworldly college production to the NFL is a major question mark given his playing style and lack of size. Just imagine if the Browns let Hoyer walk and Manziel ends up folding. Pink slips all around.
In fact, forcing Manziel to ride the bench for a couple more years could be a good thing. It would allow him more time to grow out of his immaturity issues and to learn the NFL system, which didn't turn out so bad for Aaron Rodgers.
As far as the financial repercussions of keeping both guys on the payroll, the Browns can afford it. Thanks to the rookie pay scale dictated by the 2011 CBA, Manziel’s contract is an affordable four years, $8.25 million. He’ll count just $1.85 million against the cap in 2015, giving the Browns plenty of room to pay Hoyer big money.
Play Fanduel, Win big money
Mitigating risks
We've seen a recent trend in quarterback contracts that backload money and turn what appears to be unwieldy mega-money into team-friendly deals. People lost their minds when a six-year, $115 million contract was announced for Andy Dalton in August -- until it was reported that built-in team options meant the Bengals could get out of the contract at any point after the second year. Two months earlier, Colin Kaepernick's seven-year, $126 million deal turned out to essentially be a two-year, $28 million contract.
By signing Hoyer to a similarly structured contract, the Browns could significantly decrease the risk of handing him a long-term deal.
McManamon lays out a potential contract.
Start his deal with a $15 million signing bonus, a roster bonus due next April of $4 million and a base salary the first year of $1 million. That’s $20 million, guaranteed.
His salaries the next three seasons could be $10 million, $8 million and $12 million -- making the total $50 million.
A roster bonus of $4 million the third year and $2 million in the fourth give the team an out if it decides Hoyer no longer fits and reward Hoyer if he continues to play well. Total: $56 million.
Another $8 million in incentives -- $2 million each year for reaching the Super Bowl -- makes the total $64 million.
The final deal: Four years, $64 million, $20 million guaranteed -- with the team making decisions on Hoyer’s future before the third and fourth year.
In the end, it's hard to see the Browns not making a hard push to keep Hoyer around, especially if they can get him on a low-risk deal. The longer they wait, however, the more expensive Hoyer could become. The veteran's stock is rising steadily with every win, and he's about to get All-Pro target Josh Gordon back. If the Browns plan on locking him down, they need to do it soon.
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