The Miami Dolphins host the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football in a battle between AFC East rivals, both trying to prove they are legitimate contenders in a crowded AFC playoff field. If you are surprised to see these two teams playing a meaningful game against each other in November, you're not alone. This is the first time the Dolphins and Bills have faced off this late in a season with winning records in 14 years.
‘Thursday Night Football,’ Bills vs. Dolphins 2014: Playoff hopefuls meet in Miami
The Bills and Dolphins meet in a virtual playoff elimination game on “Thursday Night Football.”
Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
The similarities between Miami and Buffalo extend beyond their division affiliation. Both teams are 5-4 and, with the New England Patriots now runaway favorites to win the AFC East title, are likely fighting for one of the two AFC wild card spots. This is virtually a must-win game for both teams, who don't want to fall back to .500 with only six weeks remaining in the season. The Bills won the first meeting earlier this season, so another victory would give them the head-to-head advantage. The Dolphins need a win to remove that tiebreaker from the equation, since they own a better conference record (4-2) than the Bills (2-4).
Both teams are also coming off heartbreaking losses. The Bills squandered a 10-point fourth-quarter lead in a 17-13 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, while the Dolphins were beaten by the Detroit Lions on a last-minute touchdown pass from Matthew Stafford to Theo Riddick. How will the two teams handle the TNF spotlight on such a short week after those crushing defeats? Both the Dolphins and Bills have struggled in primetime games recently -- Miami has lost eight of its last nine night games, while Buffalo has dropped 12 of its last 13 night games.
Digits
The Bills' biggest problem this season has been their inability to score inside the 20-yard line. The team ranks last in the NFL in both red zone touchdown efficiency (41.2 percent) and points per red zone drive (4.1). Their ineptitude near the goal line was on full display last Sunday, when they managed just two field goals in four red zone trips against the Chiefs. Poor quarterback play has plagued the Bills inside the 20. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars (2.9) have a worse Total QBR in the red zone than the Bills (10.4) this season.
Getting into the end zone will be a challenge against a Dolphins team that features one of the best defenses in the NFL. Miami ranks in the top five in scoring defense (No. 5), total defense (No. 4) and yards per play allowed (No. 3). The strength of the defense has been its pass rush and the play of the secondary. Miami has the second-lowest opponent Total QBR (34.2) in the league and has the top-ranked pass defense according to Football Outsiders' ratings. The team's defensive play has been trending up too, with at least three sacks in each of its last five games and seven interceptions over the last month.
The battle for field position could be one of the deciding factors in this matchup. The Dolphins and Bills rank first and second, respectively, in average starting field position per drive. Miami’s advantage is due in large part to its strong kickoff return unit, which averages the second-most yards per kickoff return (30.0) in the NFL. The Bills, however, have the edge over the Dolphins on defense. Buffalo’s opponent average starting field position per drive this season ranks sixth in the league, while Miami checks in at 26th.
Who to watch
Sammy Watkins - The first-round pick out of Clemson is not only an important cog in a clunking Bills offense, but also one of the very best rookie wideouts in the league. Watkins ranks second in receiving yards (617) and fourth in receptions (42) among rookies this season, and only two first-year players have more touchdown catches than Watkins (five). When the Bills get Watkins involved in the offense, good things usually happen. Buffalo is 5-0 this season when he has more than 30 yards receiving, and 0-4 when he doesn't reach that mark in a game.
Ja'Wuan James - The rookie lineman has a huge hole to fill on the left side of the offensive line now that Pro Bowl left tackle Branden Albert is done for the season with a torn ACL and MCL. Albert was the league's fourth-ranked tackle, according to Pro Football Focus, and was arguably the Dolphins' most consistent offensive player. The spotlight now shines on James, who has played every snap at right tackle in the first nine games, and will have the increased responsibility of protecting Ryan Tannehill's blind side for the rest of the season.
The venue
The 75,000-seat Sun Life Stadium has been home to the Dolphins for more than 25 years since opening in 1987. The multi-purpose stadium is also home to the University of Miami football team, and the Florida Marlins played there from 1993 to 2011. It has hosted two World Series, five Super Bowls and the BCS National Championship in January 2013. Over the past two decades the stadium has had numerous names, including the original name of Joe Robbie Stadium. It has also been called Dolphin Stadium, Landshark Stadium and Pro Player Stadium.
How to Watch
Where: Sun Life Stadium, Miami
When: 8:25 p.m. ET
TV: NFLN
Announcers: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson
Online streaming: Verizon NFL Mobile
Odds
Miami is favored by 5.5 points at home over Buffalo, with an over/under of 42, per OddsShark.
Preliminary judgment
Our experts at SB Nation are heavily favoring the Dolphins to win, with only Joel Thorman taking Buffalo. The CBS Sports expert panel is evenly split on this game -- four have Miami and four are picking the Bills.
Further Reading
For more on the Bills, check out Buffalo Rumblings.
To keep up on the Dolphins, head over to The Phinsider.
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