Heading into their Sunday Night Football matchup this weekend, both the Patriots and Colts are leading their respective divisions with 7-2 and 6-3 records. That's great and everything, but at this point in these franchises' histories both teams have come to expect the playoffs, especially this year. This game means so much more, however, because it will help determine seeding in the playoffs.
Patriots vs. Colts preview: 3 questions that will decide the game of the week
Two of the AFC’s elite meet in Indianapolis in primetime for a game that could have major playoff-seeding implications.
Al Bello/Getty Images
There is nothing more coveted in the NFL than home playoff games. The Colts found out first-hand last year what can happen if they have to go on the road to New England in January. That 43-22 shellacking in the second round of the playoffs last season has to be stuck in the back of the Colts' minds this week because things could very well play out exactly the same way this postseason if they finish on the wrong end of the scoreboard Sunday night. For the Patriots, they have to know that they don't have many years left to try to get another ring with quarterback Tom Brady running the show. So they too understand that they need to win this game against a likely AFC division winner to put themselves in the best position for another postseason run.
Here are three questions that will be vital in determining who wins and who loses this game.
1. Will the Patriots defense get to two?
Andrew Luck reminds me of Brett Favre in one critical way. Luck, like Favre, will throw several interceptable balls each game. It doesn't matter how great Luck or Favre looked on all of their other passes; for some reason, they find a way to throw a handful up for grabs in each game.
I vividly remember my head coach Tony Dungy driving that point home to our Buccaneers squad as we prepared to go face Favre and the Packers in Green Bay back in the old NFC Central days. At that point, Favre was playing some of his best football (statistically speaking) and going into Lambeau and beating the Packers with him playing that well was a daunting task.
But Coach Dungy took some of the mystique away from Favre by showing us a lowlight reel of passes he had thrown that should have been picked off but were instead dropped by the defenders. I swear that tape seemed like it was never going to end, and there were even clips of some of my teammates dropping what should have been interceptions mixed in throughout. It was like a light bulb went off and we all realized that if we just made the plays that were there to be made, we had a great opportunity to go and get that win.
Now ... it didn’t really work out for us because we still ended up losing that game. However, if you look at Luck’s career so far, the same tactics could apply to him -- if a team can pick him off, its chances of getting a win skyrocket. Look at it this way: the Colts have lost 15 games over the last three years with Luck as the starting quarterback. In all but two of those losses, Luck threw at least one interception. In seven out of those 15 losses he threw two or more picks. In fact, the Colts have only won four games in the last three seasons in which Luck threw two or more picks.
And oh by the way, the last time these two teams locked horns Luck threw four interceptions en route to that loss in the divisional playoff game last year.
The Patriots have re-tooled their secondary, but the mission will have to remain the same. They have to find a way to get at least two interceptions to give them the best chance possible to beat the Colts at home. If history is any indicator, Luck will provide them with several opportunities, but it will be up to the Patriots to make those plays when situations arise.
Monster Week
2. Can the Colts tight ends have a breakout game?
I'm just going to say it straight out: I have serious doubts about the Colts' ability to complete passes to their receivers when they need to this Sunday (doubly so after seeing how New England handled the Broncos a couple weeks ago). I do think T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne will get theirs, but what I mean by "need to" is that on third-and-long I could see the Patriots damn near shutting the two of them out. Patriots coach Bill Belichick is notorious for taking something away from an offense. In this case, I think he opts to try to force Luck to have to rely on somebody else to move the chains.
So this could be a huge opportunity for somewhat-underachieving Colts tight end Coby Fleener, and also for the rejuvenated Dwayne Allen. I don't think the Colts particularly care which guy steps up as long as at least one of them does. Allen has shown some big-play ability this season with seven touchdowns in nine games, so he is a prime candidate to try to pick up the slack on third-and-long and the occasional fourth down. I would have to think some Colts front office types hope it's Fleener who finally catches fire against the Patriots after his mediocre first half of the season.
Play Fanduel, Win big money
3. Will The Colts Be Able To Pressure Tom Brady?
A few weeks back when everyone was eulogizing the Patriots offense, it was largely because quarterback Tom Brady was getting knocked around every week by the opposing pass rush. You haven’t seen that in recent weeks now that the offense is firing on all cylinders. It’s impossible not to see the correlation there.
Understand that the Patriots were experimenting with different lineups up front at the beginning of the season, but now it appears they have settled on a starting five. That group goes Nate Solder at left tackle, Dan Connolly at left guard, Bryan Stork at center, Ryan Wendell at right guard and Sebastian Vollmer at right tackle. So does that mean everything is fixed? I guess we will see Sunday.
The Colts are tied with the Broncos and Titans for 10th in the NFL in sacks with 24. They rely a lot on blitzing, however, and I will be focused on middle linebacker D'Qwell Jackson, who is one hell of a blitzer up the middle. Pressure up the middle in particular seems to be kryptonite for Brady, so if Jackson (who already has three sacks on the season) can have a big day then it will go a long way toward helping the Colts win the game.
If not ...
See More:
