Welcome back for another round of my SuperContest picks. I find myself scuffling along, not quite awful, but not particularly good. Just when I think I have a run going, I put together a 2-3 performance to bring me back to earth. I have now had 2-3 results in two of the last three weeks, dropping me right into the middle of the pack. I’m sticking with some home favorites this week, but I decided to go with a couple road teams that intrigue me. We’ll see if I can get out of this rut.
NFL picks against the spread, Week 12: Considering home favorites
I’m back with my Week 12 NFL picks against the spread. Let’s hope I can get back into the mix with some quality picks.
The SuperContest includes more than 1,400 participants picking games each week to see who can come out on top by the end of the season. The 2-3 performance last week has me now sitting at 29-26, and right around the middle of the pack. As always, our partners at OddsShark have staked me and a handful of other participants in the SuperContest. You can track all of us here, and you can follow the standings here.
Here are my picks for Week 12, with home teams in caps.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7) over Detroit Lions: The Patriots are on a roll, having won six straight games, and covered the spread in five of them. The Lions are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games, and 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 road games. New England has emerged as a team that I am content to pick at home most every week, regardless of the spread.
HOUSTON TEXANS (-1.5) over Cincinnati Bengals: Ryan Mallett appears to be the Texans’ quarterback of the future, or at least the near future. He replaced Ryan Fitzpatrick, and helped lead the Texans to a road upset of the Cleveland Browns. The Bengals are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games, and are coming off a big win in New Orleans. Mallett remains an unknown quantity, but he showed enough in his first start that I am going to roll with him for a second straight win. For actual comfort, I’ll call this a pick of J.J. Watt.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-4.5) over St. Louis Rams: The Chargers are struggling in a big way when it comes to the spread. They improved to 6-4 straight up with a win last week, but they have failed to cover in five straight games. The Rams are coming off a monster upset of the Denver Broncos, so consider this a wager on a big let-down for the Rams.
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS: The Cowboys claimed the first matchup between these two this season, and while Dallas did cover, the Giants were a threat for most of the game. However, the Cowboys have won three straight against the spread, as well as four of five. Eli Manning could surprise some folks this week, but I’ll try and take advantage of a little more bad Eli.
New York Jets (+4.5) over BUFFALO BILLS: This game got really weird, really quickly thanks to the snow in Buffalo. The game has been relocated to Detroit’s Ford Field, and moved from Sunday to Monday. While the Jets conducted their normal practice week in New Jersey, the Bills players spent most of the week stuck at home, buried in by the snow. Electronic transmission of the game plan allowed them to mentally prep, but they missed workouts and practice sessions all week. They got practice sessions in Detroit, but they will have their work cut out for them. I probably should skip this game, but I’m going to roll with the Jets.
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