Don’t be an idiot: NFL picks against the spread for Week 12

Welcome to Week 12, where the Raiders get a primetime game and the Bills and Jets have sold out in Detroit. Just your basic weekend of casual NFL bets for me to guide you through -- no big deal. Last week I went 5-9, which isn't technically how you make money, but I'm still within striking distance of an overall .500 record. I tried my best and that's really the most important thing.

Tennessee +11 over PHILADELPHIA: You'd have to be a complete idiot to totally buy into the "Chip Kelly as quarterback whisperer" narrative. Mark Sanchez has had some terrible offensive coaches, but you can't squeeze blood from a stone. His ceiling is about exactly as good as Nick Foles' ceiling, and I don't think either one should be favored by 11 over anyone. Mettenberger seems to have learned from Selfiegate 2014 and is only taking pictures of his dog and his girlfriend's Pinterest projects like a good NFL QB.

SEATTLE +6.5 over Arizona: I never thought the Seahawks would be be needing a home victory in late November to get within striking distance of the Cardinals in the NFC West. Only an idiot would take the reports of Marshawn Lynch feud with the coaching staff into account when betting on this game. There is no running back in the NFL who would be impacted less by a feud with his coach than Lynch. In the first place they don't have anyone that can produce like him on the depth-chart. Secondly, Lynch's style of running is basically "tell him which side to take the handoff on and then get the hell out of the way." It's impossible to coach someone to run with the crushing destruction of a Lynch carry. He'll be fine.

HOUSTON -1 over Cincinnati: Want to feel old? J.J. Watt has more receiving TDs than Jerry Rice this year.

DENVER -7 over Miami: I keep waiting for Ryan Tannehill to turn back into Ryan Tannehill and the clock is striking midnight. Something, something elevation where the air is thinner but so are Lamar Miller's running lanes.