Ryan Tannehill's impressive five-game stretch -- 108 for 157 passing, 1,283 yards, 10 touchdowns and four interceptions -- puts him in a strange place. Of the 29 active quarterbacks who have started at least a season and a half's worth of games in their first three seasons since 1998, Tannehill stands dab in the middle in terms of career passer rating. The 14 quarterbacks better than him have all been proven as bona fideb NFL starters. The 14 below him, for the most part, are career backups or busts.
4 things that make Ryan Tannehill tick
Tannehill is playing really well, and because of it the Dolphins are winning games because. What’s clicking for the third-year quarterback this season?
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Prior to Tannehill's stretch, he would have found himself firmly among the best of the bad. Through 35 career games, his 78.6 passer rating would have been between Trent Edwards' and Josh Freeman's. That is to say, somewhere between humdrum steady and hopelessly erratic, which actually isn't a bad way to describe Tannehill's career to this point. His oscillation settled down from his wild rookie days to something steadier but blander as a second-year passer. His third season started much the same way, until he began posting quality starts beginning with a win over the Oakland Raiders in Week 4.
(Players in bold earned long term second contracts, or probably will)
| Player | Team | Games Started | Rating |
| Russell Wilson | Seahawks | 40 | 98.9 |
| Nick Foles | Eagles | 24 | 94.1 |
| Robert Griffin III | Washington | 31 | 91.8 |
| Carson Palmer | Bengals | 45 | 91.5 |
| Joe Flacco | Ravens | 48 | 87.9 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | Steelers | 40 | 87.9 |
| Jay Cutler | Broncos | 47 | 87.1 |
| Matt Ryan | Falcons | 46 | 86.9 |
| Cam Newton | Panthers | 48 | 86.4 |
| Andrew Luck | Colts | 41 | 86.2 |
| Tom Brady | Patriots | 30 | 85.9 |
| Andy Dalton | Bengals | 48 | 85.7 |
| Peyton Manning | Colts | 48 | 85.4 |
| Matthew Stafford | Lions | 29 | 84.7 |
Things look pretty good up here!!!!!!!^^^^^^^^ | |||
| *RYAN TANNEHILL* | Dolphins | 40 | 81.6 |
Not so good down here>>>>>>>>> | |||
| Jason Campbell | Washington | 36 | 80.4 |
| Josh Freeman | Buccaneers | 40 | 79.0 |
| Trent Edwards | Bills | 30 | 77.9 |
| Sam Bradford | Rams | 42 | 77.3 |
| Christian Ponder | Vikings | 35 | 77.3 |
| Chad Henne | Dolphins | 27 | 75.3 |
| Derek Anderson | Browns | 27 | 75.1 |
| Drew Brees | Saints | 27 | 73.7 |
| Eli Manning | Giants | 39 | 73.2 |
| Mark Sanchez | Jets | 47 | 73.2 |
| Kyle Orton | Bears | 33 | 71.1 |
| Blaine Gabbert | Jaguars | 27 | 66.4 |
| Geno Smith | Jets | 24 | 66.2 |
| Alex Smith | 49ers | 30 | 63.5 |
Fittingly, talk of Tannehill's viability as an NFL quarterback is ratcheting up just as he has placed himself at the fulcrum of good and mediocre. It helps, too, that he's the "it" quarterback on an "it" team. (This season we've already cycled through several, saying "hellogoodbye" to the Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks, Dallas Cowboys, etc.) NFL.com's Bucky Brooks believes that the Dolphins are good enough to win the AFC East, and perhaps do more.
1) Ryan Tannehill is thriving in Bill Lazor's offense.
Whenever a new offensive coordinator takes over a group with an established quarterback, there are always concerns about how well the signal-caller will blend into the new scheme. While most play-callers will tweak and adjust the system to accentuate the strengths of a quarterback, it takes a while for the coach and player to develop the trust and communication that allows the offense to prosper under the guidance of a new leader.
In Miami, the budding relationship between Lazor and Tannehill has helped the third-year QB finally reach his potential as a playmaker -- inherently making the Dolphins' offense more dynamic in 2014.
This is the same Brooks who wrote Tannehill wasn’t a top-10 talent ahead of the 2012 NFL Draft. Not that Brooks should be disparaged. Both takes were/are right in their time and place. Tannehill was a risky prospect as a quarterback-turned-receiver-turned-quarterback out of Texas A&M. Two and a half years later he could be poised to prove the Dolphins right (though it’s too late for deposed GM Jeff Ireland).
Or not, since this is still the game of football we’re talking about, one of the wonkiest popular sports on Earth. But let’s assume for a second that Tannehill is poised to do something big. Here’s why it might be happening now (and not earlier, or later).
1. Bill Lazor is a quarterback whisperer
This is based on one year with Nick Foles in Philadelphia and a half year with Tannehill in Miami, because Lazor’s résumé -- from stints in Washington and Seattle, and a college stop in Virginia -- before taking over as the Eagles’ offensive coordinator in 2012 gave no indication that he had any special effect on quarterbacks. To suggest that Lazor’s tutelage is responsible for Tannehill’s ascension is flimsy, but, well, he’s been a much better quarterback since Lazor has been in Miami. And Foles hasn’t been as good since Lazor left Philadelphia.
Foles w/ Lazor (2013): 119.2 rating | 203-317, 64.0%, 2,891 yards, 27 TDs, 2 INTs
Foles w/o Lazor (2014): 81.5 rating | 187-312, 59.9%, 2,163 yards, 13 TDs, 10 INTs
Tannehill w/ Lazor (2014): 90.9 rating | 178-281, 63.3%, 1,907 yards, 14 TDs, 6 INTs
Tannehill w/o Lazor (2013): 81.7 rating | 355-588, 60.4%, 3,913 yards, 24 TDs, 17 INTs
The last two offenses Lazor has coordinated have been quarterback friendly, with a heavy dose of rhythm passing. The Dolphins have also been able to make better use of Tannehill’s legs. He already has more yards rushing this year through eight games (245) than he did in 16 games last season (238), and they have been effective yards at 7.9 yards per carry.
2. The offensive line doesn’t suck
And Miami's offensive line sucked a lot last season. After letting Jake Long walk and while watching the Jonathan Martin-Richie Incognito saga unfold, the Dolphins gave up 58 sacks to lead the NFL by a significant margin. A quarterback can be blamed for that in part if he doesn't consistently release the ball quickly enough, but Scott Kacsmer at Football Outsiders found that Tannehill did a reasonably good job in the pocket, according to a measure called "True Sack Rate."
Per Kacsmer, 49 of Tannehill's 58 sacks (84.5 percent) were due to a blown block or an untouched rusher, well above the league average of 70.8 percent. That percentage is on par with fellow 2012 rookie Andrew Luck (84.4 percent) and higher than Russell Wilson's (63.7) and Robert Griffin III's (65.8).
We should have expected Tannehill’s performance to improve with better protection. His 81.7 passer rating last season was better than the ratings for the six teams that gave up the next most sacks last season. This season, Miami is giving up sacks at a regular rate -- their 17 sacks given up through eight games ranks 12th in the NFL -- and Tannehill’s numbers are much better.
3. Tannehill just needed time
This is going to shock you, but great quarterbacks don’t always start out great. Occasionally there are extenuating circumstances that can make a quarterback struggle early. Being a high draft pick often means landing on a bad team. Or, more obviously, some younger players aren’t mature enough to be any good.
Chase Stuart of footballperspective.com took a look at the 42 quarterbacks he statistically determined to be “great” since the AFL-NFL merger, and tried to determine when they broke out as great players. By using adjusted net yards per attempt, Stuart found that just four of the 42 quarterbacks performed below average relative to the rest of the league during their first 32 games, and that most had performed well above average some time during their first two seasons.
That's bad news for Tannehill, who was below average in terms of ANY/A during his first two seasons, but he can take heart that he is still in the same company as Terry Bradshaw, Troy Aikman, Vinny Testaverde and Drew Brees. And perhaps none of those four dealt with an offensive line as bad as Miami's last season.
Tannehill is performing slightly below statistical average this season, but climbing fast after a slow start. At this rate, he is putting himself back on track for a long career.
4. Tannehill has mojo/juju/spunk/moxie/chutzpah
The beginning of the 2014 season was weird. It was a time of turmoil and terrible PR mistakes. Locker rooms were being lost around every corner. People began talking seriously about benching Tom Brady. And Tannehill stood in front of reporters ahead of Week 4 and named himself the starting quarterback of the Miami Dolphins after a rocky three weeks. He hasn't looked back.
By many accounts, Tannehill is an immensely driven athlete. Whatever hard work he has put in may be paying off in the form of his current hot streak. Or rather, if locker room chittering isn’t always what it’s cracked up to be, good or bad, perhaps we should just throw our hands up and admit that we don’t know for sure.
There is enough evidence to say that Tannehill could tumble down either side of hill, all of it as flimsy as statistics often are in football. We’re seeing destiny in the making, with the Dolphins set to begin a tough three-game stretch against the Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos. Soon we should have a better understanding of where, exactly, Tannehill resides.
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