NFL picks against the spread, Week 10: Considering home favorites

Welcome back for another round of my SuperContest picks. I stumbled to a 2-3 performance in Week 9, but remain in the upper half of the SuperContest standings. Arizona and New England saved me from what could have been my first truly ugly week of the season. I missed two games entirely straight up, picking San Diego and San Francisco, and then just missed on the Cleveland cover.

Speaking of the Browns, I had an odd occurrence with them this week. I actually submitted my picks on Thursday so that I could include the Thursday Night Football game. I initially picked the Cleveland Browns, which would have marked the seventh time in 10 games this season I picked them to cover. Shortly after submitting the picks to the proxy in Las Vegas, I had a change of heart and asked him to switch to the Cincinnati Bengals. The Browns have had a tough stretch straight up on the road against AFC North rivals, and a second straight week back for A.J. Green had me thinking the Bengals would pull it out. Fortunately, 10 minutes before kick off, our proxy emailed me saying the system was down and he was unable to submit TNF picks. Considering how frequently I have picked the Browns this season, it is clear to me now that I cannot pick against them the rest of the season. I will not be picking them every single week, but I will not be picking against them.

Here are my picks for Week 10, with home teams in caps.

Dallas Cowboys over Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5): The Cowboys declared Tony Romo probable for Sunday’s game at Wembley Stadium. I probably would have stayed away from this game if Romo had been questionable or worse, but even then, I thought the Cowboys would probably cover. Brandon Weeden is not a good quarterback, but this is a team that seemingly would ride DeMarco Murray to victory. I think even with Romo in, we see a bit more of a run heavy attack, and the Cowboys get the cover.

BUFFALO BILLS over Kansas City Chiefs (-2): Most of the public money has been coming in on the Chiefs, who have won three straight since their bye week. They’re hot right now, but they don’t have great history with the Bills. The Chiefs are 1-6 against the spread both in their last seven games against the Bills, and their last seven road games against the Bills. The Sammy Watkins injury is a little bit concerning, and Kyle Orton is not exactly awe-inspiring, but I’ll hold my nose and hope for the best.

BALTIMORE RAVENS over Tennessee Titans (+9.5): The Ravens lost cornerback Jimmy Smith to season-ending foot surgery, so there are some question marks. And yet, the Titans are stumbling along. They’ve lost six of seven, and even though Zach Mettenberger did some good work against the Houston Texans, I don’t think it will be enough against the Ravens. Tennessee does have some good history against Baltimore, standing 5-1 ATS in their last six matchups. Nonetheless, I prefer to look at the Titans 1-5-1 record against the spread in their last seven games this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers over NEW YORK JETS (+5): As bad as the Jets are, I might be more worried about this game than any other. The Steelers are on a roll, 4-1 ATS in their last five, and coming off three straight strong offensive performances. This is betting they can hold up, and the Jets just do not have the fire-power to hang around. My biggest concern is the potential letdown for the Steelers. They have not covered in their last four games following a matchup with the Ravens, and they are coming off a big win over the Ravens. Consider me a little bit nervous.

GREEN BAY PACKERS over Chicago Bears (+7): The Packers rolled the Bears at Solider Field earlier this season, with Aaron Rodgers putting together a big performance in the 38-17 win. Green Bay is 7-1 ATS in their last eight against Chicago, and 4-2 ATS in their last six home games against them. The Packers just seem better suited for this game, while the Bears find themselves stumbling along. The touchdown is a big number for a divisional game, but I’ll stick with it.