Last week was a rebound week with an 8-5 record picking against the spread. Two of those five picks that didn’t make it came via the NFC West -- remember when that was the toughest division in football? -- the most surprising was the Raiders covering a 15.5-point spread against the Seahawks. Big spreads are always problematic, even in the world’s second-loudest outdoor stadium.
Don’t be an idiot: NFL picks against the spread, Week 10
One trick to sports betting is to not be stupid.
Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Oakland has this week’s biggest spread as a 12.5-point underdog against the Broncos. On the surface it looks like a huge mismatch, but the Raiders get the edge with that kind of spread. My explanation is below. Here are this week’s picks:
Atlanta -1 over TAMPA BAY: Amateur pick of the week right here. This pick screams "DON'T LISTEN TO ANY OF ERIC'S GAMBLING ADVICE BECAUSE HE IS A SQUARE DWEEB WHO PROBABLY DOESN'T UNDERSTAND THAT HE'S GETTING TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF." And you'd be 100 percent right. Every nerd-ass in America looks at this line and breaks their thumbs calling their bookie to bet on the Falcons. Just because they laid 56 on the Buccaneers in Week 3 doesn't mean they're going to do it again.
But here's the reality: the Falcons are 2-6. Has there ever been a quieter terrible team than Atlanta? They even suck at losing. There are no buttfumbles or quarterbacks sprinting out of the back of their own endzones for these Falcons, there are just 30-20 losses against the Giants that no one remembers. They haven't won a game since that blowout against the Buccaneers, but as bad as they are, I simply can't stop myself from betting against Josh McCown.
NEW YORK JETS +4.5 over Pittsburgh: Ok, which quarterback would you rather invite to your daughter’s quinceañera?
There is no bigger idiot than the guy who invests thousands of his own dollars to fly a banner over a practice field demanding that they fire a GM. Trying to get a guy fired whom you’ve never met is the equivalent of throwing a shoe at George Bush thinking it will make him withdraw troops. If anything, it’s going to make Gene Idzik double down and work even harder at making inevitably shitty decisions.
DETROIT -2.5 over Miami: Las Vegas makes its money banking on people having extremely short attention spans. A dummy with a tiny attention span is going to remember that the Dolphins blew out the Chargers 37-0 last week and, well, they can't really remember what the Lions did, so they'll take the Dolphins.
The Lions had a bye and get Calvin Johnson back. Just maybe the best player in the league that's all.
OAKLAND +12.5 over Denver: At some point Oakland is going to prove me right. And then you'll all be sorry. The Raiders are very, very bad and Denver is not. But they are both equally average against the spread. The idiots of the world would come down with a case of the hurr-durr Payton Mannings, and the smart people, like me, will bet on the most godawful team in football. At least I'm pretty sure that makes me the smart one.
The rest ...
Tennessee +10.5 over BALTIMORE
BUFFALO pick ‘em over Kansas City
San Francisco -5 over NEW ORLEANS
Dallas -7 over Jacksonville (London game)
ARIZONA -8 over St. Louis
SEATTLE -9 over New York Giants
Chicago +7.5 over GREEN BAY
Carolina +7 over PHILADELPHIA
From Thursday
CLEVELAND +6.5 over Cincinnati
In the mind of a casual idiot, Ohio has only one football team. They are one NFL team that wears orange, starts with C.B. and is always bad. To an idiot, this game is basically an intersquad scrimmage, but to the trained eye, Cleveland is very good. I think.
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