Don’t be an idiot: Week 15 NFL picks against the spread

Well how the hell do you like that? Had myself a nice little 10-6 week last week, bringing me back once again to within striking distance of .500. I’m 93-98-1 (48.6 percent ) on the year, which would be a good enough average to make me by far the best hitter in the history of baseball or get elected president, so you could say I’m having a great season by any real measure.

Now, technically 48 percent also means that I’m losing money, but as far as I’m concerned a 2 percent loss (plus the juice) over the course of one season means that I had a damn good time cheering for terrible teams for a relatively low price. When you gamble and lose on sports, you can just think of it as paying an extra bonus charge to add turbo to what might otherwise be a really boring game. In the case of most primetime games this season, it’s a small price to pay.

NEW ENGLAND -7.5 over Miami

The Patriots are 5-1 against the spread in their last six, and it’s because they are so damn good at preventing backdoor covers by being assholes. To be truly dominant in any sport over a long period of time you have to be a bit of a sociopath, and once the Pats get a lead they will continue to pile on the points like they want to make sure to stay ahead in the computer polls. The Dolphins have reached the limit of where Joe Philbin can take them and will lose by 10 points, I think.

Denver -4 over SAN DIEGO

Despite a midseason swoon that feels like it was way worse than it really was, the Chargers could still win the AFC West. Right now they’re in the sixth and final spot in the AFC playoffs and they hold a valuable head-to-head tiebreaker over the Ravens thanks to their last-minute comeback in Baltimore.

The Chargers are terrible against the spread. They are 1-8 in their last nine games. Denver on the other hand, tends to play very well in San Diego, going 4-1 against the spread at Qualcomm Stadium.

Philip Rivers is going to have to do most of it on his own given the sad state of the Chargers run-game combined with the dominant top-ranked Denver rushing attack, and I really don’t see that happening.

San Francisco +10 over SEATTLE

This is a stupid pick, and I have absolutely no justification for it whatsoever. In fact, there’s a tremendous case to be made for why you shouldn’t bet on the 49ers.

San Francisco is a dismal 1-7 ATS in their last eight and Seattle is 18-7 ATS at home in their last 25. Not exactly a small sample size on either side of this equation. I’m probably just betting on the 49ers to be contrarian, but, oh well, call it a gut feeling.

I’m finally getting around to reading Into Thin Air about the disaster on Mt. Everest. It’s a great book if you enjoy endless paragraphs of someone describing ice structures using mountaineering terms, but there’s a common theme about why it’s a good idea to just trust your instincts sometimes when it comes to completely nonsensical risk-taking. In other words, me betting on the 49ers is exactly the same as climbing the world’s tallest mountain during an ice storm. You could use any slogan from a “No Fear” T-shirt to justify why I’m betting on the 49ers, and that’s why you should not follow my advice on this pick.

PHILADELPHIA -3 over Dallas

Philly is really good (6-1) at home while Dallas is 6-0 on the road. But playing in Philadelphia in December is quite a bit different from playing in St. Louis or Nashville in September.

I’ve been to a few games in AT&T Stadium and it is by far the quietest place to see an NFL game. I don’t know if it’s because the high ticket prices exclude the drunker, noisier fans, or if the environment is too much like a club/movie theater to encourage the fans to create a home field advantage, but it doesn’t surprise me at all that Dallas is better on the road. The Eagles on the other hand have the exact opposite problem, and if we’re going to have any hope for another Tony Romo implosion, this is going to be the weekend.

Houston +7.5 over INDIANAPOLIS

The Colts’ offense looked shockingly bad last week. That was partly due to Joe Haden being a top-three cornerback in the NFL, and partly due to an offensive game plan that looked a whole lot like what the Colts tried to do in the first half of last year’s playoff game against the Chiefs.

The Texans are a respectable 4-1 against the spread on the road of late, which isn’t to say that they’re going to win, but I would gladly take a touchdown here.

CLEVELAND (pick ‘em) over Cincinnati

Everyone is talking about Johnny Manziel, but Cleveland’s defense has been nothing short of outstanding. Like, really, really good. Their DBs can hit and cover, and they certainly did enough to shut down Andrew Luck last week until the last minute of the game.

NFL rivalries should have trophies like in college when Minnesota and Michigan fight for the Gilded Smelt or whatever. The winner of the last Browns vs. Bengals game should get to display Paul Brown’s urn in their team facilities. It would be great for the Browns to get to add something to their trophy case for a change, and for the Bengals to finally build one.

NEW YORK GIANTS -6.5 over Washington

The Giants absolutely punished the NFL’s most forgettable franchise last week when they won 36-7 over the -- uh, I forget. The game might not even have been televised. As much of a disaster as the 2014 Giants are, I can’t imagine Colt McCoy and Washington beating anyone by 29 points like the Giants were able to do on the road. Washington is a team without a rudder, and without a strong leader in that locker room, I just don’t see them being motivated to come close to defeating the Giants in a stadium where they haven’t won since forever. It could be another ugly Sunday for Washington fans.

CAROLINA -3.5 over Tampa Bay

Someone’s gotta win, right?

The rest ...

Arizona +6 over ST. LOUIS (nailed it)

Green Bay -4.5 over BUFFALO

KANSAS CITY -10 over Oakland

Jacksonville +14.5 over BALTIMORE

Pittsburgh (pick ‘em) over ATLANTA

TENNESSEE +2.5 over New York Jets

CHICAGO +3 over New Orleans

★★★