Know your defensive meltdown

A defensive meltdown can present in two forms. In the first, a defense begins the season strongly and then begins to crumble in the later weeks. That appears to be the case with Arizona against the run this year; through Week 10, the Cardinals had the fifth best rushing defense, allowing 3.35 yards per opponent carry. But in Weeks 11 through 13, Arizona only ranks 20th at 4.44 yards per carry allowed, an especially troubling collapse given that they still have two opponents left - the Seahawks and the Chiefs - with top ten rushing attacks.

The other form of meltdown reoccurs more frequently over the course of the year, when a defense disintegrates late in games repeatedly. That describes the Baltimore Ravens, who gave up over 9 yards per play in the fourth quarter against the Chargers. In quarters one through three, the Ravens rank fourth in touchdowns allowed (15) and seventh in yards per play allowed (5.15). In the fourth quarter, however, they are 31st in touchdowns given up (12) and dead last in opponent yards per play (6.96).

Patient A is the 2-10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Patient B is the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the fact that we're even drawing a similarity between the two explains why the Steelers have a 3-3 record against teams that are currently below .500.

It's enormously impressive that Aaron Rodgers hasn't throw an interception at home since December 2012, but it's even more astonishing when you look at what percentage of his passes in Lambeau are touchdowns over the last two years:

(I have no idea what Ryan Fitzpatrick is doing there either). Rodgers has reached this level, in part, because he was given three years to develop before being given full time responsibility. Andrew Luck wasn't given that cushion, but look at his projected numbers through 12 games compared to the third seasons of some other notable quarterbacks who were asked to start early:

In some instances, growth can be much more sudden. Take the Houston Texans, who threw the ball 137 times across games 8 through 11 and only got five passing touchdowns out of it. They only needed 33 passes against the Titans to score six times.

- Even if they don't make the playoffs (and with games against the Broncos, Packers, and Patriots, they probably won't), the Bills are above .500 through 12 games for the first time since 2000, and that should at least be worth a commemorative t-shirt.

- After falling behind to the Bucs in the first half, the Bengals held Tampa to three points and six rushing yards on 11 carries in the second half; since Week 10, Cincinnati's defense has only allowed two touchdowns on defense in the third and fourth quarters.

- Oakland followed up their first win of the year by losing 52-0 to the Rams, the second biggest blowout in franchise history. The worst Raiders loss was a 55-0 defeat in 1961 to the eventual AFL champion Houston Oilers; we can confidently say that the Rams are not winning a championship this year, AFL or otherwise.

- Through 12 games, the New York Giants have given up 319 points. Only four Giants teams in franchise history have been more generous.

- Six of Carolina's eight losses this year have been by at least 14 points. The franchise record for two touchdown losses in a season is eight, set in 2010 ... after which the Panthers hired Ron Rivera and drafted Cam Newton first overall.

- There are many strange aspects of the New York Jets, but perhaps none more baffling than this: this year, the Jets are 1-3 when they run the ball at least 20 times and average five yards or more a carry, as they did Monday night against the Dolphins.