The New England Patriots have clinched home field advantage and the Colts have locked themselves in as the AFC's No. 3 seed. Those are the only certainties entering the final week of the season.
NFL playoff scenarios, Week 17: Chargers need win, NFC South up for grabs
With two playoff spots still available, the final regular season weekend promises to be wild.
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UPDATE: The NFC bracket is all set.
In the NFC, five teams are log jammed at 11-4. All five of those could either end up as the No. 1 seed or be relegated to a wild card spot. Of course the main intrigue is the conclusion of the awful NFC South race: the Panthers and Falcons are the only teams in the league playing a win-and-you're-in elimination game in the season's final week.
Here’s the breakdown of all possible movement:
AFC
1. New England Patriots (12-3)
The Pats are locked into the No. 1 seed, having home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
2. Denver Broncos (11-4)
Denver can clinch the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye with a win at home over the lowly Raiders, or if the Bengals lose to the Steelers.
NFL playoff picture
3. Cincinnati Bengals (10-4-1)
Cincy can clinch the AFC North with a win over the Steelers at Heinz Field on Sunday Night Football. If they do that, they could also sneak into the No. 2 seed if the Broncos lose, giving them a first-round bye.
4. Indianapolis Colts (10-5)
Indy's game against the Titans is essentially meaningless. They're locked into the No. 4 seed and will play the loser of the Pittsburgh-Cincinnati game.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)
Pittsburgh can win the AFC North with a win over the Bengals, which would vault the Steelers into the No. 3 spot. Worst case scenario, they lose and go in as a wild card team.
6. San Diego Chargers (9-6)
They Chargers control their own destiny. If they beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, they are in. However, a loss eliminates them and opens the door for Baltimore, Houston or Kansas City.
The rest
The Ravens (9-6), Texans (8-7) and Chiefs (8-7) are all still alive for the final wild card slot. Baltimore needs a Chargers loss and a win over the Browns to get in. Houston needs to beat the Jaguars then hope both Baltimore and San Diego lose. Kansas City needs a minor miracle: it has to beat San Diego and get losses from the Ravens and Texans, both of which are double-digit favorites.
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NFC
1. Seattle Seahawks (11-4)
2. Detroit Lions (11-4)
Detroit’s game against Green Bay will decide the NFC North. Win and the Lions hold onto the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye. Lose and they’ll fall back into a wild card spot.
3. Dallas Cowboys (11-4)
The Cowboys have already locked up the NFC East and at least the No. 3 seed, but could still move up with some help. To clinch a first-round bye, they need either 1) Seattle and Arizona to lose or 2) to beat Washington and have the Lions and Packers play to a tie.
4. Carolina Panthers (6-8-1)
The scenario for the NFC South is as simple as it gets: the winner of the Panthers-Falcons game in Atlanta gets the No. 4 seed. The loser goes home.
5. Green Bay Packers (11-4)
The Packers trade spots with the Lions with a win, giving them the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye. If that coincides with a Seahawks’ loss or tie, Green Bay becomes the No. 1 seed.
6. Arizona Cardinals (11-4)
The Cards need to beat the 49ers and hope for a Seattle loss to win the NFC West, which would also give them a first-round bye. If the Packers lose on top of that, the Cardinals become the No. 1 seed.
The rest
The only other NFC team still alive is Atlanta. Beat the Panthers and they’re in.
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