The final week of the NFL regular season has arrived and thanks to an unpredictable first 16 weeks of the season, there is still to a lot to settle in Week 17. Only two playoff spots are up for grabs heading into the final week, but the playoff seedings are far from set.
NFL playoff tiebreakers: Breaking down the postseason races
With Week 17 upon us, chaos is about to ensue in the playoff picture.
Only the New England Patriots in the AFC are locked into a first-round bye. The Denver Broncos are in great position to clinch the other bye in the AFC. Things are a little less settled in the NFC, where several teams are still in contention for the No. 1 seed. The Seattle Seahawks are in the drivers' seat, but even they will need a win and some other things to break right if they are going to clinch home field advantage.
Things are so tightly contested that most races won’t be decided by a team with a superior record. Instead, division titles, wild card spots and seeding will come down to a series of tiebreakers. A result from early in the season will suddenly carry a lot of weight. Several levels of tiebreakers could come into play to settle it all out, including head-to-head records, conference winning percentage and more.
Let’s take a look at how things break down:
Head-to-head
This is the first and easiest way to figure out tiebreakers. When two teams are tied for either a wild card spot or divisional title, the tiebreakers begin with head-to-head. The same can be applied for seeding between division winners or wild-card teams. In the case of a divisional tie, one team must sweep the other to make this tiebreaker take effect.
If more than two teams are tied for a playoff spot, the head-to-head tiebreaker only works if one team has swept the other involved in the tie.
Division and conference record
If two teams within a division are tied, the first tiebreaker following head-to-head is divisional record. For example, if the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos were each 11-5 and had split their matchups, we would move to record within the AFC West.
If two teams are tied for a playoff spot from different divisions, we go a different route. If there is not a head-to-head game, the next breaker is conference record. Each team plays 12 conference games, making this a very effective way to break ties. Should there be more than two teams tied for a wild-card spot, the only way head-to-head matchup comes into play is if one swept the others. Otherwise, divisional ties are broken first, then you move into the conference.
Common Opponent
NFL playoff picture
This tiebreaker is a bit tricky, so hang in there. If the two tied teams are within the same division (ex: Giants and Cowboys), the third tiebreaker behind head-to-head and division record is record against common opponents. If the teams with a tie are from different divisions, we go from head-to-head, to conference record, to common opponent record.
For this tiebreaker to qualify, there needs to be at least four common games between the teams. In the case of teams within the same division, there are always 14 common opponents.
As for the rest
Usually, we do not get this far down the list. If we do, the next tiebreaker is strength of victory, which combines the winning percentages a given team has beaten. Of course, the team with the highest winning percentage advances. Should that somehow not do the trick, we have strength of schedule. Simply put, that takes into account the entire schedule, with the team owning the harder schedule able to advance.
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