Despite an 8-4 record, the Dallas Cowboys are in an all-too-familiar position heading into their Thursday Night Football matchup against the Chicago Bears.
‘Thursday Night Football,’ Cowboys vs. Bears 2014: Dallas needs bounce-back win in Chicago
The Bears look to play spoiler against a Cowboys team that is currently on the outside of the playoff picture.
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
They have dropped three of their last five games after a promising 6-1 start, and would miss the playoffs if the season ended today. The current playoff projections at Football Outsiders also have the Cowboys on the outside looking in, with the seventh-best chance in the NFC to make the postseason (49.9%). Is this setting up for another late-season collapse in Big D?
This is the third time in the last four years that the Cowboys have entered December with a winning record. In the previous two seasons (2011 and 2013), they finished a combined 2-7 en route to identical 8-8 records. Cowboys fans also don't need to be reminded that their team has lost a win-or-go-home Week 17 game in each of the last three years, or the fact that Tony Romo is 12-17 as a starter in December.
If Dallas is going to avoid its annual December swoon, it needs to bounce back from an ugly Thanksgiving Day loss to the Philadelphia Eagles and beat a struggling Bears team at Soldier Field on Thursday. Chicago is 5-7 and mathematically still alive for a playoff spot, but realistically is playing for pride in its final four games. Although the Bears have massively underachieved this season, they are a dangerous team with loads of offensive talent that is capable of pulling off an upset against any opponent.
Digits
The biggest head-scratching stat from the box score of the Bears-Lions game last week was Matt Forte's rushing line: five carries, 6 yards. Forte is one of the top running backs in the league -- ranked eighth in rushing yards and sixth in rushes -- yet the Bears virtually ignored him in the 34-17 loss at Detroit.
If the Bears are going to have any chance of beating the Cowboys, they need to find more balance in their offense. They are coming off a game in which they had 51 dropbacks and a franchise-low eight rush attempts, continuing a trend that has defined the Bears’ season so far. Chicago has the second-lowest rush percentage in the league (33.2%) and has called more run plays than pass plays just once this season -- despite an offense that features one of the league’s best rushers in Forte.
Chicago needs to look no further than across the field on Thursday to see a team that has found success with a ball-control offense. The Cowboys are the polar opposite of the Bears, with a league-high rush percentage of 46.7 percent and the NFL’s third-ranked rushing offense (145.3 yards per game). Dallas is at its best when it uses its strong ground attack to dominate the time of possession, win the battle in the trenches, and keep its opponent on the sideline.
The key to the Cowboys' offensive game plan is to get an early lead so it can establish the run in the first half and control the tempo of the game. However, that has been a problem for Dallas recently -- it fell behind 14-0 and 14-3 in the last two weeks against the Eagles and New York Giants (though they did recover to beat the Giants). The defense has also struggled this season to contain the opponent on its opening drive of the game. Only the Oakland Raiders have allowed more points on the first possession of a game than the Cowboys (41), and no team has allowed more than the five first-possession touchdowns the Cowboys have given up.
Who to Watch
Jay Cutler - The veteran quarterback has done little this season to justify the seven-year, $126 million contract that the Bears gave him this winter. Although he is putting up career-best numbers in completion percentage (66.5%) and passer rating (91.2), he still remains one of the most mistake-prone quarterbacks in the league. He has a league-high 20 turnovers -- including six lost fumbles -- and ranks second in interceptions with 14. Cutler has to show the Bears that he is their franchise quarterback and is the right guy to lead the team back to the playoffs.
DeMarco Murray - Murray is coming off a season-low 73 rushing yards in the Thanksgiving Day loss to Philadelphia, and needs a strong bounce-back game Thursday to prove that his heavy early-season workload is not negatively impacting him down the stretch. His longest run against the Eagles was just 9 yards, the first time he didn't have a rush of 10 yards or more this season. Defenses have increasingly stacked the box against Murray, who remains one of the most physical backs in the NFL with a league-best average of 2.9 yards after contact per rush.
The Venue
The current version of Soldier Field opened in 2003, replacing the original stadium, which had been the home of the Bears since 1971. With 5,000 fewer seats than the old Soldier Field, the 61,500-seat new stadium is now the league’s smallest venue in terms of capacity. In refurbishing the stadium, the team decided to keep the historic Greek colonnades of the old Soldier Field and demolished the rest of the structure, building the new stadium within the exterior shell. One of the unique features of the venue is a 250-foot granite-wall sculpture that serves as a memorial to those who served in the armed forces, and is a remnant of the stadium’s distinguished historic past.
How to Watch
Where: Soldier Field, Chicago
When: 8:25 p.m. ET
TV: NFLN
Announcers: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson
Online streaming: Verizon NFL Mobile | NFL.com
Odds
Dallas is favored by 3.5 points on the road over Chicago, with an over/under of 51 points, per OddsShark.
Preliminary Judgment
Nearly all the experts at SB Nation think the Cowboys will bounce back with a win over the Bears. Only PFT Commenter is predicting an upset by the home team. Over at CBS Sports, the Cowboys are a unanimous pick to beat Chicago on the road.
Further Reading
For more on the Cowboys, check out Blogging The Boys.
To keep up with the Bears, head over to Windy City Gridiron.
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