NFL picks against the spread, Week 2: Will underdogs cost us all again?

Week 2 of the 2014 NFL season is officially underway, which means it is time for my next five picks in the LVH SuperContest. The contest includes over 1,400 participants picking games each week to see who can come out on top. Our partners at Odds Shark have staked me and a handful of other participants in the SuperContest. You can track all of us here, and you can follow the standings here.

I opened with a 2-3 week, as underdog madness cost me. In Week 1, I selected the favored Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, San Francisco 49ers, and Denver Broncos, and the underdog San Diego Chargers. The 49ers and Chargers covered, the Buccaneers were beaten fairly easily by the Carolina Panthers, and the Steelers and Broncos lost covers late in their respective games.

Week 1 was all about the underdogs, who went 11-5 against the spread (ATS). Week 2 got off to a solid start for favorites, with the Baltimore Ravens defeating the Steelers 26-6, easily covering the 2.5 point spread. Of course, the favored Seattle Seahawks easily covered the spread to open Week 1, so we can take the Ravens win with a grain of salt. We'll see if the underdogs build on their strong Week 1 performances.

BILLS (+1) over Dolphins

The Buffalo Bills are coming off a big road win against the Chicago Bears. In ordinary circumstances, I might consider the possibility of a letdown. However, this Bills team will be playing in front of a fired-up home crowd. The Dolphins are coming off a huge win against the New England Patriots in which they had a big second-half comeback. I'd be more inclined to think Miami is due for a letdown. Additionally, the Bills are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games, while the Dolphins are 2-4 ATS in their last six road games, and 8-17 straight up (SU) in their last 25 road games.

The Patriots are coming off a tough road loss to the Dolphins. They re only 4-4 ATS in their last eight games coming off a loss, but they also have not lost three straight games since losing four straight in 2002. Counting their playoff departure last season, they are on a two-game losing streak. They face a Minnesota Vikings squad that will be without Adrian Peterson. HIs absence means Matt Asiata is likely to get the start. Asiata will get plenty of touches at running back, but he is just not all that good a back.

For some, the Seahawks are a team to ride while they remain hot. They looked good enough against the Green Bay Packers last week that I can understand that philosophy. However, I am skeptical of them on the road. I think they can very easily win this game, but I think it will be a lot closer than people expect. The Seahawks have gone 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games, but consider this my hopes that the underdog trend continues for another week.

BUCCANEERS (-5.5) over Rams

The Bucs were a disappointment in Week 1, losing to a Carolina Panthers team that was without starting quarterback Cam Newton. The Bucs were a betting favorite for many heading into the season, but another poor performance at home will cause many to jump ship. Fortunately, they are facing a St. Louis Rams squad that has all kinds of problems. They lost Chris Long to injury, and their quarterback situation is a mess. If the Bucs cannot cover on this one, that will probably be the end of my time with them.