The Post-Mortem, Week 2: The scoreboard deficit epidemic
Prior to this week, only four NFL teams had never overcome a seven-point halftime deficit to snag a win since 2008. The Chicago Bears snapped their streak, and SB Nation’s epidemiology department has redoubled its efforts to find a cure for scoreboard deficit disease.
Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports
FEED YOUR GROWING DEFENSE LOST YARDS
The nurturing and development of a defensive unit is a complicated thing for even the most experience coordinator, and scholarship has not been especially consistent over the years as to what makes for a strong and fully-actualized defense. There is, however, one thing you can always give your defense with confidence - tackles for loss. Buffalo (nine in a win over Miami), St. Louis (seven on the road defeating Tampa Bay), and Washington (11, including 10 sacks of Chad Henne) all enjoyed the nutritional benefits, reaffirming the old saying "an ounce of Ryan Tannehill blindsided is worth a pound of cure."
SCOREBOARD DEFICIT DISEASE
Though the number is small, a handful of NFL teams are physically incapable of overcoming a halftime deficit larger than seven points. Entering Week 2, that list included the Titans, Browns, Rams, and Bears, none of whom had come back to win such a game since 2008. Tennessee showed no signs of shaking SDD, unable to overcome the 16-point lead they spotted Dallas, but we are happy to report that Chicago has fully recovered, climbing out of a 10-point halftime hole to beat the 49ers. A course of treatment featuring high doses of Kaepernick interceptions seem to be the cure to SDD; we are arranging for a shipment to be sent to St. Louis for their Monday night game against San Francisco next month.
SCOREBOARD EQUITY DISEASE
An unusual mutation of SDD, SED has recently been discovered in tests of the New York Jets. The symptoms are particularly unusual; since 2011, the Jets are 7-7 in games in which they hold the lead at the end of the first quarter, as they did against the eventually-victorious Packers. But they are 11-11 in games in which they trail at the end of the first quarter, and 5-9 when the score is tied after fifteen minutes! We at the Department of Football Epidemiology are baffled by this, and recommend that the Jets avoid entering the second quarter tied at all costs, even if it means intentionally throwing pick sixes.
THIS WEEK’S UNUSUAL CASE STUDY
This week, we look at two different quarterbacks with a remarkable similarity in two statistical measures: games in which they have thrown no interceptions and games in which they have thrown multiple interceptions. (Please note that the following charts include regular season starts only).
Patient A, a current NFL starter, begins with a somewhat predictable pattern. Multiple interception games exceed games without a turnover as the patient adjusts to the elevated speed and talent of professional football. Once he does in his fifth season or so, the improvement is pronounced, and he seems well on his way to a successful career where interceptions are the exception, not the rule. Curiously, though, he begins to regress, and his multi-pick number creeps closer to his zero-pick count. Through two weeks this year (not captured in this chart), Patient A has 50 career games without any interceptions, and 48 with at least two.
The career path of Patient B, now retired, could not be more different. He also struggles early, but it is not until his seventh season or so that he begins to show improvement. That improvement is significant enough, however, that he enjoys several productive veteran years and finishes with more interceptionless games despite his early carelessness. Patient B finishes with 49 zero-pick games against 48 multi-pick starts.
The end result is the same - a career in which frequent turnovers and a clean sheet in the interception column are equally likely - but is one superior to the other? That, unfortunately, is a question of personal preference, not science. (The identities of Patients A and B are at the end of this bulletin).
EARLY ONSET DUAL LOSSES AND EARLY ONSET DUAL WINS, COMPARED
Many football studies trumpet the unlikely success of teams that start 0-2 but do so leaguewide. A more responsible approach, however, is to look at each individual franchise's history before formulating such a diagnosis. For example, neither the Saints nor the Buccaneers have ever started 0-2 and finished with a winning record - but the Chiefs have, in 2006. Tampa and New Orleans fans may therefore make January vacation plans with confidence; Kansas City fans are advised to wait.
Here we stop to note that, while 0-2 often feels like (and is) a death knell, 2-0 does not necessarily portend success. Take, for example, the Bengals and Texans, both of whom are currently undefeated. When Cincinnati has previously started 2-0, they have gone on to finish above .500 in six seasons ... and below .500 in four seasons. The ratio is worse for Houston, who have two winning seasons and two losing ones after starting with two wins. (Panthers fans may be comforted to learn that their team has only started 2-0 and finished with a losing record once, compared to four winning seasons after that hot start).
SALUTING THE HEALTHY
A special thanks to the Seattle Seahawks and all they do for the football elderly, as they allowed Antonio Gates to become just the ninth person age 34 (or older) to catch three touchdowns in a game. Truly inspirational to see a team show such deference and respect like that.
GET WELL SOON
All teams commit turnovers. Many of these turnovers give an opponent excellent field position. A healthy team, however, does what it can to prevent turnovers from turning into touchdowns. Minnesota was not a healthy team in this regard last season, as 37 percent of opposing drives that started after a turnover ended in seven points, and they were even sicklier against New England, who scored touchdowns on two of four Viking turnovers.
A FINAL WELLNESS TIP
Always keep your helmet on when wielding a lightsaber. This gentleman could have lost an eye.
(Patient A = Eli Manning; Patient B = Jake Plummer)
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