The start of every NFL season means the return of NFL gambling, one of the reasons the NFL is the most popular sport in America. Every year I make my picks against the spread, and hope for the best. I don’t have a specific strategy with my picks, although Eric Sollenberger’s strategy might be a smart way to go.
NFL picks against the spread, Week 1: Let the SuperContest begin
I’ll be taking part in the 2014 SuperContest, so it is time to take you along for the ride. Here are my Week 1 picks.
Normally I’ll pick every game, and then wager on only a small number when I visit Las Vegas. However, this year I am taking part in the SuperContest at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. The contest includes over 1,400 participants picking games each week to see who can come out on top. Our partners at Odds Shark have staked myself and a handful of other participants in the SuperContest. You can track all of us here, and you can follow the standings here.
The contest involves picking five games each week, for 17 weeks. You get to choose which five games you will pick. The lines are locked in Wednesday evening, and picks are submitted by the end of the week. While I have done my share of sports gambling in the past, this is my first contest entry, so I will take you along for the ride. The odds are pretty good I’ll finish closer to the bottom than the top of the standings, but maybe I’ll get lucky!
This first week, I went more with gut than with extensive research. There are a lot of numbers to review, but when it comes to Week 1, there are a lot of teams about which we know very little. We have some general ideas, but for now, oddsmakers and bettors are both just trying to get a handle on what will happen this season. Will it be a season of underdogs, or will the favorites roll? Will we see crazy endings and bad beats galore, or will it be a fairly quiet season? Like a fighter trying to feel out his opponent early on, Week 1 is about getting an initial handle on the upcoming season.
Here are my five picks (home team in caps).
STEELERS (-6.5) over Browns
If anything is going to trip me up in Week 1, I have a hunch it is this pick. The Steelers are clearly better than the Browns, but division rivalry matchups are always tough to call. Every week I am going to have a pick that I second-guess myself on until the game starts. This is that pick.
BUCCANEERS (-2) over Panthers
The Panthers are a prime candidate for regression due in part to their losses this offseason. The Bucs head into the season with Lovie Smith at the helm. He can be an inconsistent head coach, but after the nonsense of Greg Schiano, the change in coach should be a godsend for this team. I won’t be picking the Bucs every week, but they have some great matchups to take advantage of in 2014.
49ers (-4.5) over COWBOYS
I am a life-long 49ers fan, and entering the contest I promised myself I would never pick them. I follow them closely, but I know my homerism can get in the way. Naturally that means I needed to make a Week 1 exception. When a team gets a chance to play against a defense that could be historically bad, you take your chances with them. A lot of money has been coming in on the Cowboys, bringing the line down to 3.5 in some places, but this is one game the 49ers can dominate.
BRONCOS (-7.5) over Colts
The Broncos are going to roll through the AFC West this year, and at home they seem like as close to a sure thing as you are going to find this year. Peyton Manning does not have Wes Welker for now, but as we have seen in the past he can turn average receivers into great receivers. I figure I am going to ride this one until it bucks me.
Chargers (+3) over CARDINALS
The Cardinals are another regression candidate, and they head into their Week 1 Monday Night Football game dealing with all sorts of injuries. Andre Ellington joins a long list of players dealing with ailments, with the defense in particular losing numerous players. For now, I have no faith in the Cardinals.
I only used those five games for the SuperContest, but here are the rest of my picks, posted on Thursday over at Niners Nation.
SEAHAWKS (-6) over Packers
Saints (-3) over FALCONS
RAMS (-3.5) over Vikings
STEELERS (-6.5) over Browns
EAGLES (-10.5) over Jaguars
JETS (-5.5) over Raiders
RAVENS (-2) over Bengals
BEARS (-7) over Bills
Washington (+3) over TEXANS
Titans (+3.5) over CHIEFS
Patriots (-5) over DOLPHINS
BUCCANEERS (-2) over Panthers
49ers (-4.5) over COWBOYS
BRONCOS (-7.5) over Colts
LIONS (-5.5) over Giants
Chargers (+3) over CARDINALS
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