Welcome back for Week 5 of the 2015 NFL season. The return of the NFL means gambling is back in our lives. The NFL might frown upon it, but gambling and fantasy football are two of the biggest reasons for the NFL’s insane level of popularity. I think they’ll put up with it.
NFL picks against the spread, Week 5: Slow and steady in the SuperContest
I’m taking part in the 2015 SuperContest with the folks at OddsShark, so it is time to take you along for the ride. Here are my Week 5 picks against the spread.
MGM Grand Sports Book
This year I am back for another crack at the LVH SuperContest. The contest includes over 1,400 participants picking games each week to see who can come out on top. Our partners at OddsShark have staked myself and a handful of other participants in the SuperContest. You can track all of us here, and you can follow the standings here.
The contest involves picking five games each week, for 17 weeks. You get to choose which five games you will pick. The lines are locked in Wednesday evening, and picks are submitted by the end of the week. I am currently sitting at 15-5. I was 4-1 each of the third three weeks, but slipped to 3-2 in Week 4. Hopefully things don’t slip further this week. Here are my five picks for Week 5.
Cleveland Browns (+6.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS
The Ravens have had a lot of historical success against the Browns, but Baltimore is struggling with injuries. They will be without Steve Smith and Crockett Gillmore. The Browns are not exactly overloaded with talent, but they have played the Ravens tough. Baltimore has won five straight against the Browns, but the Browns are 4-1 ATS in those games. I don’t think the Browns win this game, but I’m not sure the Ravens are good enough to be giving nearly a touchdown. I’d like the extra half point, but I’ll take what I can get.
ATLANTA FALCONS (-7) over Washington
The Falcons are on a roll, and the public is heavily betting them. Washington is coming off a big divisional win against Philly, and is not playing too awful. I am counting on Washington being Washington and suffering a letdown. This Falcons team seems different than past Falcons teams due to a much more qualified head coach. Dan Quinn seems to be a huge difference-maker. Well, that and Devonta Freeman being an absolute beast.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3) over Seattle Seahawks
Who knew Andy Dalton would be this solid. The Bengals are off to their best start in some time, 4-0 SU and ATS. Seattle has gotten a pair of wins after two losses to start the season, but they will be playing without Marshawn Lynch for a second straight week. Thomas Rawls has been very solid in his place, but those wins have come against Chicago and Detroit. I see the Bengals defensive front having a field day against the Seahawks struggling offensive line. It should be enough for the home win and cover.
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) over DETROIT LIONS
I feel like this line should be higher. The line came down due in part to Detroit’s near upset of Seattle and Arizona’s upset loss to St. Louis. If the Seahawks had a remotely decent offensive line, they would have covered handily. The Cardinals are better than we saw last week, and I think they show it this week on the road against Detroit.
Denver Broncos (-4.5) over OAKLAND RAIDERS
The Raiders are a hot pick this week, facing a 4-0 Broncos team that just does not seem quite as good as their record. The Raiders have two wins, but both have come against poor defenses. When they faced the strong Bengals defense in Week 1, they struggled. This game would mark Derek Carr’s biggest challenge, and I think they come up short. This is an improved Raiders squad, but they still have work to do.
Here are all my picks for Week 5 (6-7-1 last week, 34-26-2 overall):
HOUSTON TEXANS vs. Colts (+1): Colts - Win
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+3): Jaguars
TENNESSEE TITANS vs. Buffalo Bills (-2.5): Titans
BALTIMORE RAVENS vs. Cleveland Browns (+6.5): Browns
ATLANTA FALCONS vs. Washington (+7): Falcons
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS vs. Chicago Bears (+9): Bears
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES vs. New Orleans Saints (+4.5): Eagles
GREEN BAY PACKERS vs. St. Louis Rams (+9): Packers
CINCINNATI BENGALS vs. Seattle Seahawks (+3): Bengals
DETROIT LIONS vs. Arizona Cardinals (-2.5): Cardinals
DALLAS COWBOYS vs. New England Patriots (-8.5): Patriots
OAKLAND RAIDERS vs. Denver Broncos (-4.5): Broncos
NEW YORK GIANTS vs. San Francisco 49ers (+7): Giants
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+3): Chargers
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