2015 NFL picks against the spread, Week 5: A 10-point spread doesn’t feel big enough for Patriots vs. Cowboys

Jerry World was just a crazy billionaire’s dream the last time the Patriots visited the Cowboys at home in 2007. You remember that Patriots team, turning aside all 16 of its regular season opponents without much trouble. They were a juggernaut, but the Cowboys team they played eight years ago was pretty good too. They were both 5-0 when they met at Texas Stadium in Week 6. New England was a five-point favorite; they won by 21 points.

This season, the Patriots are less of a juggernaut than they are an icy revenge machine, controlled by an efficient coaching robot, rolling over whatever fodder the NFL sends them just to prove a point.

In 2007 the Patriots were only scoring 36 point per game at the time the played the Cowboys. This Patriots team is scoring almost 40 points per game. The 2015 version of the Cowboys is 2-2. Don’t let the .500 record fool you, to call them middling would be generous. Brandon Weeden is their quarterback.

The Patriots are favored by 10 points on this trip to suburban Dallas. That spread somehow feels generous. Bill Belichick isn’t one for mercy. It’s not his fault someone else’s crummy defense is out there on the field, but, dammit, he’s got a game to run and he’s going to run it against whatever spiritless 11 players are there for him to practice against.

The 33 percent of the people picking Dallas to cover that spread are throwing away their money. Keep it. Bet it on another game, bet it on the over for how many times the 2007 Patriots are mentioned during the game and the week that follows.

Jaggin’ off again

The Jaguars were 10-point underdogs last week in Indianapolis when I sat down to write this little advice column. I told you to bet on them to cover the spread. Then, it was announced that Andrew Luck would not start for the Colts last Sunday, and the spread moved to three points. The Colts won the game, 16-13, so I was kind of right.

This week, they play the lowly Buccaneers in Tampa. The Jags are favored by three points. They haven’t been road favorites since 2011, a game against the Curtis Painter-era Colts that they won. That’s good news, right? No. I’d like to tell you that the Jags are a safe bet this week, but I have no confidence in them anymore. This team should be better than 1-3, but they’re not.

What about Los Angeles?

Yes, you should definitely bet on the NFL returning to Los Angeles in 2016, but I’m not here to tell you which team to bet on. Instead, I thought we’d take a look at each of the three potential Los Angeles teams for better action this week. The Rams are the only potential L.A.-bound team not playing at home in their dilapidated stadium that taxpayers paid a lot of money to put there in the first place.

Rams at Packers: That’s a big spread, and a lot of people might be tempted to take the Rams given their strong performances against Seattle and Arizona. Don’t. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will eat them alive on hard counts, getting them offsides and burning them with free plays. Plus, this is a Jeff Fisher team coming off a big win, surrounded by a week of cheeky press clippings.

Broncos at Raiders: The Raiders are five-point underdogs at home. I’m picking them to cover this week, even though it makes way more sense that the Broncos defense will be too much to handle.

Steelers at Chargers: Instinct says take the Steelers. But these are the Michael Vick Steelers, an unpredictable bunch. Not that the Chargers aren’t unpredictable, but this feels like a week they get it right.

All betting info via OddsShark.