The good people at Oddshark were kind enough to ask me to join their team in the Westgate Supercontest this year, and I have repaid them by going exactly .500. My strategy is admitting that I am bad at gambling. Therefore if I do the opposite of what I want to do, then I’ll be good at it.
Week 7 NFL picks against the spread from a big moron
The Chiefs? The Titans?? Try going against your gut to bet on this week’s NFL games.
Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
Some of this week’s picks are so bad that it gave me physical pain to go back and change them all at the last minute. That has to mean I’m on the right track. I hope.
Last week: 2-3
Total: 15-15
CHIEFS -1.5 over Steelers
The Kansas City Chiefs are so bad at covering spreads. They’re 0-5 ATS of late. Without Charles and maybe without Maclin, there’s not a whole lot of hope for that dreadful offense. Their defense on the other hand is pretty good, but it’s tough to hold opposing teams within striking range of Alex Smith considering he can only throw a football 7 yards at a time.
The Steelers defense isn’t what it used to be, not that it will matter too much. Harrison is older and more terrifying, but this unit looks exactly like you’d expect: an aging Dick LeBeau squad minus Dick LeBeau. They have two great running backs and a WR corps that could, in theory, make any QB look competent with the possible exception of Landry Jones. 80 percent (!) of the betting public is siding with the Steelers for this contest, and with god reason. Pittsburgh getting anything above a push in this game makes me want to bet the farm and put my dog down as collateral, but I’m a Big Moron, so I changed my pick at the last second to Chiefs -1.5.
TITANS +4.5 over Falcons
Don’t want to watch even one second of this game. That’s how much I dread taking the Titans. I saw Clay Travis say that Ken Wisenhunt is something like 3-29 in his last 32 games, and I had no idea they were that good. I know they beat the Bucs this year, and I’m going to guess they’ve beat the Jaguars twice in the last two seasons? Without looking it up that feels right.
Falcons look like a buzzsaw. Last week’s foray into the Superdome was a bit of a let down, but I’m not going to hold that against them. They finally have a running game to take some pressure off Matt Ryan, and if Julio Jones is anywhere above 50 percent, the offense is capable of dropping 30 points on almost any team. Lock city, population Falcons. But I’m a Big Moron, so I changed my pick at the last second to Titans +4.5
PATRIOTS -9 over Jets
Is anyone sick of hearing how good the Jets defense is yet? First in scoring, first overall, second in yards per play. Here’s the thing though, they’ve played some trash teams. They have wins over the Browns, Colts, Redskins, and Dolphins, and a loss to the Eagles. Taking all that into account, I’m still not sure how much better I should expect them to be. This is a stout defense with a lot to prove.
The Patriots were everyone’s lock of the century last week as they were widely expected to put a vengence-style butt-whooping on the Colts as payback for all the DeflateGate snitchery. They lost a lot of people a lot of money by failing to deliver on a 50-point drubbing, and got me thinking that they might not be worthy of the kind of respect that lends itself to spotting a divisional rival nine (since moved to 10) points. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to Patriots -9.
Eagles +3 over PANTHERS
/Pukes into a Sprite bottle that’s already 80 percent filled with puke.
Panthers only spotting three points to this Eagles team is the upset of the week. The Panthers defense is very talented, especially compared to a Giants unit that ranks among the worst in any sport, yet still managed to intercept Sam Bradford twice. Panthers should win this game 17 to negative three. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to Eagles +3.
CARDINALS -7.5 over Ravens
The Ravens are due. Gotta be. That’s my entire logic behind why I want to bet on Baltimore. This is why I’m a moron and why I fade myself in this contest- because I feel like things should happen. I suspect there are a few people reading this who are thinking “The Ravens almost made it to the AFC Championship game last year. How far could they have fallen? Should be turning the ship around any day now.” I know I am.
The Cardinals in the meantime might just be the least exciting good team in the history of the NFL. I’ve tried to convince myself that I should watch a full Cards game three or four times, but I always change the channel to the Bills or 49ers. I try to appreciate their electrifying offense, which spotlights Carson Palmer and Chris Johnson in the year 2015, but I just can’t. And this is why I’m ignorant.
This is going to be the week the Ravens turn it around, but I’m a Big Moron, so I changed my pick at the last second to Cardinals -7.5.
