NFL picks against the spread 2015, Week 7: Put your money on the Patriots

Give Dan Campbell credit, he’s not afraid to try out new motivational gimmicks to stir the sleepy Dolphins. Campbell took over for Joe Philbin barely three weeks ago, no doubt after Stephen Ross had been assured by Mike Tannenbaum that his team needed to change its head coach after a Week 4 turd in London. He broke out Oklahoma drills that week in practice, and they beat the Titans after their bye (with plenty of help from the Titans).

This week, Campbell pulled out all the stops, letting his players wear BLACK JERSEYS in practice this week. We laughed when Tony Sparano buried a football after being named the interim in Oakland last year, but the Raiders almost won the week after that. The heat absorbing power of black practice jerseys will no doubt have these once stale fish swimming with the sharks against the Texans this week.

Or something like that.

Campbell’s motivational tactics -- and a Houston team prone to switching from Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett like changing hats -- made the Dolphins 4.5-point favorites this week. Nearly 60 percent of bettors agree. The Dolphins are 2-5 against the spread following wins of 14 or more points -- they’re 0-5 after scoring 30 points or more.

Zebras don’t change their stripes, as we discussed on the podcast this week. Miami’s win last week looks impressive on the stat sheet, but there wasn’t much special, or all that different about Campbell’s team versus Philbin’s. The defense didn’t look any more inspired than they had before. Tennessee also happens to be the dumbest team in the league (there’s no other to way to put it). And this Texans team, despite Bill O’Brien’s handling of the quarterbacks, is a better group all around than the Titans.

Back to London

Not only do you get another football game on Sunday morning from London this week, you get the Bills and Jaguars to ease your way out of that Saturday hangover. Fun!

Both teams have covered exactly once in their last three. What do you expect when Rex Ryan has Mario Williams and Marcell Dareus dropping back into coverage instead of rushing the passer. And the Jaguars, well, they’re just terrible. This is Gus Bradley’s third season. They should be winning games now. Their last three losses came against the Colts, Buccaneers and Texans.

Buffalo is playing without Tyrod Taylor and Sammy Watkins this week. That should be reason enough to pick the Jaguars to cover the spread. I’m not dumb enough to think they’ll win straight up.

Take the Jets

The Patriots have lost exactly once in their last eight games against the Jets. They’ll win again this week, too. Tom Brady and Co. haven’t lost at home in October since 2005 (so that includes some swell Matt Cassel time), and this Patriots team is hell bent on showing the rest of the NFL they can beat them with the proper inflation in its footballs and not even so much as a six-second InstaFace video of the other team’s practice.

However, the Patriots are on an 0-4 run against the spread vs. the Jets. And these aren’t those terrible Rex Ryan Jets teams of the last two years either.

So, who gave them eight points (nearly 10 points from some books) against Todd Bowles’ Jets? Not surprisingly, more than two-thirds of the action sides with New York covering, and the house has insulated itself from taking a bath. If you’re dying to bet on this game, you’re probably better off wagering that the Patriots can get back to stomping the Jets, something they haven’t done since, you guessed it, the Butt Fumble game in 2012.

Bills (-4.5) vs. JAGUARS

FALCONS (-6.5) vs. Titans

TEXANS vs. Dolphins (-4.5)

BROWNS vs. Rams (-6.5)

Saints vs. COLTS (-4.5)

VIKINGS (-3) vs. Lions

BUCCANEERS vs. Washington (-3.5)

JETS vs. Patriots (-8)

Steelers (-3) vs. CHIEFS

Raiders vs. CHARGERS (-4)

Cowboys vs. GIANTS (-3.5)

Eagles vs. PANTHERS (-3)

Ravens vs. CARDINALS (-9)

All odds via OddsShark.