The AFC South has to send a team to the playoffs -- them’s the rules. It doesn’t matter if 10 teams in the AFC have a better record than the AFC South champion, five would be out of luck while whatever bad team to come of the NFL’s worst division would get a chance at a postseason run.
AFC South could produce worst playoff team ever
Only two teams have ever made the playoffs with a losing record, but the 2015 AFC South has a chance at sending a team to the postseason at just 6-10.
Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
After Week 7, the Indianapolis Colts are the division leader with a 3-4 record while the other three AFC divisions are reigned over by undefeated teams. The record for the Colts likely would've been worse if the team didn't get the chance to play other AFC South teams. The only three wins for Indianapolis came against the Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans in consecutive weeks.
The AFC South is the only division with four losing records and the teams are 8-19 combined. In games outside the division, AFC South teams are 4-15.
| Team | W | L | PF | PA | Net Pts | vs. AFCS | vs. rest of NFL |
| Colts | 3 | 4 | 147 | 174 | -27 | 3-0 | 0-4 |
| Texans | 2 | 5 | 154 | 199 | -45 | 1-1 | 1-4 |
| Jaguars | 2 | 5 | 147 | 207 | -60 | 0-2 | 2-3 |
| Titans | 1 | 5 | 119 | 139 | -20 | 0-1 | 1-4 |
There are still eight games between AFC South teams left to be played, so wins will have to come for the division at some point, but given the fact that the four teams are winning less than a quarter of the games outside the division, it’s not outrageous to believe a 6-10 team could end up with the crown.
Only the 7-8-1 Carolina Panthers in 2014 and the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks in 2010 have won a division with a losing record, so 6-10 would be the record for futility for a division champion. Both of those teams won Wild Card Weekend games. But given the upcoming schedule for the Colts, the losses could continue to tally for the team on top.
Indianapolis Colts (3-4)
Winnable out-of-division games: Week 12 vs. Buccaneers; Week 13 @ Steelers
Indianapolis has the No. 32 defense in the NFL, Andrew Luck is now drawing boos for his up-and-down play, and next up are the undefeated Carolina Panthers and undefeated Denver Broncos. Then the Colts will have a bye week and a Week 11 game against the 6-1 Atlanta Falcons.
That upcoming schedule could feasibly drop the Colts to 3-7 by the time Thanksgiving arrives if Chuck Pagano doesn’t get things straightened out soon.
But even the rest of the out-of-division schedule is far from a cakewalk. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a strong defense and are averaging more than 30 points per game in October, while road games against the Pittsburgh Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger and the resurgent Miami Dolphins are tall tasks.
The reprieve is three games against AFC South teams in the last four weeks of the season.
Houston Texans (2-5)
The Texans are switching between Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett on what seems like a weekly basis, but with the No. 7 offense in the NFL, the real problems might be on the defensive side of the ball. Even with J.J. Watt, Vince Wilfork and Jadeveon Clowney up front, the Texans are No. 28 in points allowed and got absolutely shredded by Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins in Week 7.
A Week 8 game against the Titans will give the Texans a chance at a tie at the top of the division, but then Houston has tough games against the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Jets after the bye week. If Week 7 was an indicator of the direction the season is headed for the Texans, getting five more wins before picking up five more losses might be a lot to ask.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5)
No team is more adept at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and even a 27-3 lead against the Buffalo Bills in Week 7 was squandered before the Jaguars managed to scrape out a win. Jacksonville is the only team in the AFC South with two wins against non-AFC South teams, but games against the Jets and Falcons are tough and an 0-2 record against the division isn’t going to get the job done.
The Jaguars are below the league average on offense and defense, but have been in almost every one of their games, losing in overtime to the Colts and blowing a fourth-quarter lead over the Texans. Few teams are better against the run, but the Jaguars will need more consistent play from Blake Bortles if the team hopes to start winning more of its close games.
Tennessee Titans (1-5)
Winnable out-of-division games: Week 9 @ Saints; Week 12 vs. Raiders
The Titans began the year with a 42-14 win over the Buccaneers, but haven’t won since. After averaging 375.7 yards and just under 30 points per game in September, Tennessee managed just 10 points per game in October and never eclipsed 300 yards of offense in a game.
The five-game losing streak has covered up the fact that the Titans defense is actually one of the NFL’s best and enters Week 8 at No. 4 in total yards allowed. However, Marcus Mariota’s quick start to the year slowed substantially before he was injured in Week 6, and the Titans will need to get the offense going again if they hope to get wins to start rolling in.
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The Colts are plenty capable of stumbling in November, but is there a team in the division that can capitalize? The last time another AFC South team won a game against Indianapolis, it was a Week 15 loss to the Texans in 2012, which was avenged two weeks later. That Week 17 win was the first of a streak of wins against divisional opponents that was extended to an NFL-record 16 games in Week 5 of this season.
AFC South teams will have to earn wins when they play each other, but are still struggling so much against the rest of the NFL. Unless a turnaround comes soon for one of the teams, the division could be well on its way to making a mark in the history books as one of the worst ever groupings of four teams.
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