NFL picks against the spread, Week 4: This SuperContest run will get ugly soon

Welcome back for Week 4 of the 2015 NFL season. The return of the NFL means gambling is back in our lives. The NFL might frown upon it, but gambling and fantasy football are two of the biggest reasons for the NFL’s insane level of popularity. I think they’ll put up with it.

The contest involves picking five games each week, for 17 weeks. You get to choose which five games you will pick. The lines are locked in Wednesday evening, and picks are submitted by the end of the week. I managed a third consecutive 4-1 performance, which puts me at 12-3 on the season. There is no way this lasts, but maybe I’ll get lucky. Here are my five picks for Week 4.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-6) over Houston Texans

I’m against most folks with this pick, as a majority of money is coming in on the Texans. The Falcons are 3-0, but have had to come back in the fourth quarter in all three wins. And yet I go with them at home. I like Devonta Freeman, and think with him and a currently dominant Julio Jones, they can get that touchdown victory. I am not overly comfortable with the pick, but I think the Falcons can cover for the fifth time in six games.

WASHINGTON (+3) over Philadelphia Eagles

I just can’t see the Eagles as a 3-point road favorite right now. They got the road win over the New York Jets last week, but they were not overly impressive with it. And Sam Bradford remains a guy I don’t mind wagering against. I am also looking for rain to pick up in the D.C. area, and potentially turn this into a muddy grind-it-out affair. I like Washington’s duo of Alfred Morris and Matt Jones in that kind of matchup.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-4) over Kansas City Chiefs

Betting against Andy Reid on the road is not exactly ideal. The Chiefs coach has a strong road record against the spread. But Alex Smith is struggling with consistency, and the Chiefs are coming off a short week. I am not inspired wagering on Andy Dalton, but I think they can get just enough for the cover.

DENVER BRONCOS (-6.5) over Minnesota Vikings

The Broncos got a big road win last week, and return home to face a solid Vikings team. The Vikings will be without Charles Johnson, and heading into Denver that could be a problem. Teddy Bridgewater has not done a ton of throwing on the young season, but he might have to challenge a tough Broncos secondary. I’m betting on the secondary in this one.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-10) over Detroit Lions

Even with Marshawn Lynch a question mark for Monday Night Football, this is strictly a numbers pick. There have been studies on circadian rhythms that suggest Eastern time zone teams playing in the Pacific time zone have faced a decided disadvantage. Circadian rhythms deal with the internal clocks of most living things. When a 5:30 p.m. PT kickoff is happening, it is already 8:30 p.m. on the east coast. Studies have shown Pacific time teams have done particularly well against the spread in such games. This might not pay off, but I’ll go with the numbers!

Here are all my picks for Week 4 (10-6 last week, 28-19-1 overall):