I’ve been on the most moderate of rolls over the last couple of weeks: 10-5 since Week 7 in the Westgate SuperContest, courtesy of Oddshark. It should be noted that this also means that the bets that I really wanted to make have been pretty awful. My strategy is to pick the five games that I’m most confidant in and completely reverse them at the last second.
NFL picks against the spread: 5 best bets for Week 10
I’m a big moron, so I make my picks by doing the exact opposite of what I think I should do.
On the season: 25-20
Last week: 3-2
This week’s picks...
LIONS +11.5 over Packers
The Lions figure to be a hangover cure after a bad loss, and the Packers could certainly use a couple aspirins and a cup of coffee about now. This feels like a bounce back game, especially since Green Bay looked like the Packers that we’re used to in the second half against Carolina.
Lions are a dead team walking. I would give the Pack 14, but I’m a Big Moron, so I changed my pick at the last minute to Lions +11.5.
WASHINGTON (Pick ‘em) over Saints
Washington has been trash in November for the past couple of years. They’re 1-9 ATS since 2013, and haven’t shown any reason to believe that’s turning around any time soon. The good news for DC is that New Orleans defense should offer a few chances for Cousins and company to put up some points.
But this is a team on the decline, and the Saints are on the rise. If anything, FedEx field provides a home-field disadvantage for Washington, at least against the spread. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last minute to Washington.
Browns +4.5 over STEELERS
PREDICTION: The Steelers are going to win this one by 20 in the best professional game that Landry Jones will ever play. Then the Browns will give him a three-year, $40 million dollar contract.
But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last minute to Browns +4.5.
RAIDERS -3 over Vikings
It’s going to take a full calendar year of moderate success from both of these teams in order for me to feel great about betting on either one of them.
Per OddsShark, the Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last seven, and the Vikings are 4-15-1 ATS on the road in their last 20. That’s a pretty decent sample size, but every time I think of the Raiders I think of that dingy baseball field and a much stronger general sense of incompetence. I got the Vikings all day on this one ... but I’m a Big Moron, so I changed my pick at the last minute to Raiders -3.
Patriots -7 over GIANTS
This is the old double-reverse psychology bet on my part. New England has been steamrolling fools at a pace akin to their 2007 season on their Brady/Belichick revenge tour. So I can see why a lot of people have been riding the money train. But this week the narrative took us back to the well to remember how Eli and Coughlin beat the Patriots in Super Bowls that took place eight and four years ago.
The hilariously specific trend of the week is that the Patriots are 7-21-2 ATS in their last 30 coming off of two consecutive wins against the spread. Hell, I’m sold. But I’m a Big Moron, so I changed my pick at the last minute to Patriots -7.
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SB Nation presents: Jim Caldwell can’t resurrect the Lions. Fire him now.
