NFL picks against the spread, Week 10: Rolling with home teams in the SuperContest

Welcome back for Week 10 of the 2015 NFL season. The return of the NFL means gambling is back in our lives. The NFL might frown upon it, but gambling and fantasy football are two of the biggest reasons for the NFL’s insane level of popularity. I think they’ll put up with it.

This year I am back for another crack at the LVH SuperContest. The contest includes over 1,400 participants picking games each week to see who can come out on top. Our partners at OddsShark have staked myself and a handful of other participants in the SuperContest. You can track all of us here, and you can follow the standings here.

The contest involves picking five games each week, for 17 weeks. You get to choose which five games you will pick. The lines are locked in Wednesday evening, and picks are submitted by the end of the week. I am currently sitting at 30-13-2. I bounced back this week, putting together a 4-1 performance following the previous week’s 2-2-2. Let’s see if I can repeat it! Here are my five picks for Week 10.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-1.5) over Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys continue to lose against the spread without Tony Romo in the lineup. The Bucs are coming off a sizable home loss to the New York Giants. I was surprised to see the Bucs are 1-3 ATS at home, and 3-1 ATS on the road. I still think they can rebound at home against the Matt Cassel-led Cowboys. The Bucs are an inconsistent team, but they are facing a bad Cowboys team.

TENNESSEE TITANS (+5.5) over Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are unbeaten and coming off a big home win over the Green Bay Packers. I am wagering on a bit of a letdown for a Panthers team that is good, but could stumble. Marcus Mariota led the Titans to a road upset of the New Orleans Saints, and get David Cobb back in the lineup. I think they can put together a potential upset, but at least the late cover.

ST. LOUIS RAMS (-7) over Chicago Bears

The Rams are yet another inconsistent team. They handle bad teams fairly easily, but struggle against good teams. The Bears are playing much better lately, but they could have a banged up pair of skill position players in Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery. The Bears run defense is particularly bad this year, so I am hoping Todd Gurley can run them over all day long.

WASHINGTON (PK) over New Orleans Saints

Consider this a wager against the Saints defense, and the Saints ability outdoors. The Saints have managed a 2-2 ATS record on the road this season, covering at Carolina and Indianapolis. I’m rolling the dice they struggle a bit in Washington. And while wagering on Kirk Cousins is far from ideal, I think we can see this Washington offense do some things against the Saints shaky defense.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-10.5) over Houston Texans

The Bengals are on quite a roll, sitting at 7-0-1 ATS. Some would say they are due for a loss, others would say continue riding the streak. They have struggled in prime time in years’ past, but this year, the Andy Dalton-led offense seems a little different. It is worth noting they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against Houston, but I’ll roll the dice that this year’s Bengals squad is a different animal.

Here are all my picks for Week 10 (6-7 last week, 69-58-4 overall):

NEW YORK JETS vs. Buffalo Bills (+2.5): Jets - Loss
GREEN BAY PACKERS vs. Detroit Lions (+11.5): Packers
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS vs. Dallas Cowboys (+1.5): Bucs
TENNESSEE TITANS vs. Carolina Panthers (-5.5): Titans
ST. LOUIS RAMS vs. Chicago Bears (+7): Rams
WASHINGTON vs. New Orleans Saints (PK): Washington
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES vs. Miami Dolphins (+6.5): Eagles
PITTSBURGH STEELERS vs. Cleveland Browns (+4.5): Steelers
BALTIMORE RAVENS vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5): Jaguars
OAKLAND RAIDERS vs. Minnesota Vikings (+3): Raiders
DENVER BRONCOS vs. Kansas City Chiefs (+6): Broncos
NEW YORK GIANTS vs. New England Patriots (-7): Patriots
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS vs. Arizona Cardinals (+3): Seahawks
CINCINNATI BENGALS vs. Houston Texans (+10.5): Bengals

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