Just a few weeks ago, the Green Bay Packers looked like a shoo-in to earn a first-round bye and a favorite to contend for the Super Bowl. But after a three-game slide, the Minnesota Vikings could take a commanding lead in the NFC North with a win in Week 11, and relegate the Packers to the Wild Card race.
NFL playoff picture and odds 2015, Week 11: Packers need to end slide now to keep NFC North race tight
A battle between the Packers and Vikings in Week 11 could leave Green Bay battling for an NFC Wild Card spot.
Despite taking the lead in the division in Week 10 by defeating the Oakland Raiders while the Packers dropped a game to the lowly Detroit Lions, the metrics at Football Outsiders still favor the Packers to earn the NFC North crown. With few NFC Wild Card teams to contend with, both the Packers and Vikings are on the inside track to a trip to the postseason, but it's the Packers with a 53.8 percent chance at winning the division while the Vikings are just behind at 44.7 percent.
If the Vikings can continue their hot streak with a sixth-straight win, it would mean a two-game lead and an advantage in the division tiebreakers with six games left to play, but if the Packers win, the two teams will be tied for the division lead at 7-3.
Outside of the NFC North, tight division races are few and far between. Five of the eight division leaders have a 2.5-game lead or better, and the New England Patriots could clinch the AFC East as early as Week 12. The Denver Broncos have an 88.6 percent chance at the AFC West crown, while four other teams have odds higher than 90 percent at winning their division.
The only divisions with multiple teams in contention are the NFL's two worst: The AFC South and the NFC East. With a win on Thursday, the Jacksonville Jaguars could be in a three-way tie for the AFC South crown if the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans lose to the Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets, respectively.
Entering Week 11, Football Outsiders gave the Jaguars a 19.8 percent chance at winning the AFC South, with the Colts at 47.2 percent and the Texans at 29.6 percent. But the race is tightening with the Jaguars earning back-to-back wins, and both the Colts and Texans losing their starting quarterbacks.
The NFC East is also tightening up with both Philadelphia and Washington trailing the New York Giants by one win. At the bottom of the division is the 2-7 Dallas Cowboys, who may have a chance at a run of their own now that Tony Romo is back in the lineup.
Still, FO is giving the Cowboys just a 2.1 percent chance at winning the NFC East, while the Giants lead the way with a 38.6 percent chance, narrowly edging the 38 percent odds for the Eagles.
With seven weeks left to play, these are the current favorites to win the Super Bowl, according to Football Outsiders:
| No. | Team | Super Bowl win |
| 1 | New England Patriots | 26.0 percent |
| 2 | Carolina Panthers | 19.7 percent |
| 3 | Arizona Cardinals | 17.6 percent |
| 4 | Cincinnati Bengals | 15.4 percent |
| 5 | Green Bay Packers | 3.7 percent |
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