NFL picks and predictions, Vikings vs. Falcons 2015: Minnesota picked for key road win

After losing at home to the Green Bay Packers last weekend, the Minnesota Vikings can't afford another misstep if they want any chance to hold onto the NFC North division lead. They have a tough road game this week, but it comes against an Atlanta Falcons team that has collapsed after a 5-0 start.

Since beating Washington in overtime on Oct. 11, Atlanta has gone 1-4 with a once-powerful offense turning the ball over 13 times. Matt Ryan has had serious issues with ball control, and is now up to 10 interceptions and six fumbles in 10 games. That's not a great trend against a Minnesota defense that's ranked third in the league. The Vikings don't force a lot of turnovers -- just two in the last five games -- but Green Bay is the only team to score 25 or more points against them this season.

Teams have been able to run on Minnesota, which is good news for Atlanta if Devonta Freeman is able to recover from a concussion in time to play. Freeman is averaging over 100 yards from scrimmage a game, while Tevin Coleman hasn't been nearly as effective as the No. 2 back.

When Minnesota has the ball, the main matchup will be Adrian Peterson against Atlanta's third-ranked rushing defense. Peterson is already at 1,000 yards through 10 games, and is averaging 4.8 yards a carry, while Teddy Bridgewater is effective when he runs the ball. Atlanta only allows 3.6 yards per carry, but has given up 324 yards in the last three games, so they will need to pick things back up to stop Peterson.