Welcome back for Week 9 of the 2015 NFL season. The return of the NFL means gambling is back in our lives. The NFL might frown upon it, but gambling and fantasy football are two of the biggest reasons for the NFL’s insane level of popularity. I think they’ll put up with it.
NFL picks against the spread, Week 9: Rolling with favorites in the SuperContest
I’m taking part in the 2015 SuperContest with the folks at OddsShark, so it is time to take you along for the ride. Here are my Week 9 picks against the spread.
This year I am back for another crack at the LVH SuperContest. The contest includes over 1,400 participants picking games each week to see who can come out on top. Our partners at OddsShark have staked myself and a handful of other participants in the SuperContest. You can track all of us here, and you can follow the standings here.
The contest involves picking five games each week, for 17 weeks. You get to choose which five games you will pick. The lines are locked in Wednesday evening, and picks are submitted by the end of the week. I am currently sitting at 26-12-2. I slipped this past week, finishing 2-2-1, for my worst showing through eight weeks. Let’s hope it does not become a pattern! Here are my five picks for Week 9.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-11.5) over Cleveland Browns
I got off to a nice little start with this pick. I had to get my SuperContest picks in by Thursday because I elected to choose this one. That means missing the Friday injury reports, but with six teams on bye, I decided to go with the early game. My reasoning was the Bengals are on fire right now, Johnny Manziel was coming in on a short week with the emergency start, and Joe Haden was not going to play. Manziel ended up putting together a very solid performance, and if his receivers had not dropped so many passes then the Browns likely would have covered.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-1.5) over St. Louis Rams
I feel like the Rams might be a little overvalued right now. They are coming off two straight strong performances, but they came against the Browns and the San Francisco 49ers. They have a great defense and running game, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves quite yet. The Vikings have covered five straight games, and are 4-1 against the spread in their last five against the Rams.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-7.5) over Tennessee Titans
Marcus Mariota makes his return from an MCL sprain, and will wear a knee brace for the game. The Titans were 1-1 ATS in his absence, with a 10-7 loss to the Atlanta Falcons, and a 20-6 loss to the Houston Texans. They face a Saints squad that is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games. Drew Brees appears to be back to playing well, and I enjoy a little home-cooking with Brees. The Saints defense is a dumpster fire, as we saw last week against the New York Giants, but the Titans offense has plenty of its own issues. I’ll bet on the Saints offense to get this cover.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-13.5) over Washington
Double-digit lines are not ideal, but given where this line is moving, I think I might have gotten a bit lucky. The SuperContest line posts on Wednesday, and does not change. Since this line posted, some sportsbooks have gone as high as 15 points. Even those at 14 risk the push, so at 13.5, I am willing to take my chances. The Patriots are 4-1-2 against the spread this season, although 1-1-1 over their last three games. They are coming off a blowout win against the Miami Dolphins, and while Washington is coming off a bye, I think the Patriots are decidedly better.
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS
The Eagles are the only road team I took. They are coming off a bye, and unlike Washington, I think that bye week holds a little more value in this game. Dallas will get a second consecutive week of Dez Bryant, but they also get another week of Matt Cassel. He could surprise us, but the Cowboys are struggling in a big way without Tony Romo. Additionally, the road team in this rivalry is 7-1 ATS in the last eight road games, so why not roll the dice on Chip Kelly & Co? Even if it means betting on Sam Bradford.
Here are all my picks for Week 9 (8-5-1 last week, 63-51-4 overall):
CINCINNATI BENGALS vs. Browns (+11.5): Bengals
PITTSBURGH STEELERS vs. Raiders (+4): Steelers
NEW YORK JETS vs. Jaguars (+6.5): Jets
MINNESOTA VIKINGS vs. Rams (+1.5): Vikings
BUFFALO BILLS vs. Dolphins (+3): Dolphins
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS vs. Titans (+7.5): Saints
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs. Washington (+13.5): Patriots
CAROLINA PANTHERS vs. Packers (-2.5): Packers
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS vs. Falcons (-7): 49ers
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS vs. Giants (-2.5): Bucs
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS vs. Broncos (-5): Broncos
DALLAS COWBOYS vs. Eagles (-2.5): Eagles
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS vs. Bears (+4): Bears
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