Las Vegas was built on the backs of joes like me who watch a lot of prime-time NFL games and listen to sports talk radio. I drink a few beers, sit back, and let the media tie me off and mainline the narrative directly into my veins for five months a year. Fortunately I’ve recognized what a moron I am to get my NFL analysis from the most common sources, and that most of my instincts are wrong when it comes to wagering against the spread. So when OddsShark invited me to join the Westgate Supercontest, I knew that my only chance would be to wager against my better judgement.
NFL picks against the spread: 5 best bets for Week 9
The best way to make money is to bet against yourself.
So this year I’m picking games based on doing the opposite of what I think I should do. So far, so good.
Last week: 4-1
On the year: 22-18
This week’s picks (home team is in CAPS):
Raiders +4 over STEELERS
This is a line straight out of the early 80s. Yes, the Raiders are much better than expected, and yes the Steelers are not the same team without Le’Veon Bell. But giving up only four points at home to the Raiders seems like gimme-city. As an average NFL fan, I know a couple of things: the Raiders are bad, and the Steelers are good. Going off of recent history Pittsburgh should win by at least 10 points at Heinz field.
Apparently I’m not alone in this thought, since the line has moved to 4.5 and the Steelers are still getting 60 percent of the action. Lock of the week. Steelers by 11, but I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to Raiders +4.
Washington +13.5 over PATRIOTS
Last time I bet on Washingotn was 2007 and it was the most embarrassing sports-gambling experience of my life. I’m in a bar in Harrisonburg, Va., and it’s like 1:30 a.m. on a Saturday. I meet two dads from New Hampshire, one the father of the UNH Quarterback and the other the dad of a professional NASCAR driver. We get to talking about how unstoppable the Patriots look and how they’re spotting the Redskins 14 points at home. One thing leads to another and this guy gave me the Redskins +18, with the loser having to mail the winner a custom authentic jersey of the winner’s choice.
The next day I tune in to the game, and by halftime it was 24-0 Patriots. I get a phone call with the guy bragging and I take my lumps as he’s in my ear telling me that he’s going to call me back in two hours with his address and size. By the end of the third it was NE 38, Washington 0, and the final score was 52-7 with Washington scoring a garbage time TD to preserve Joe Gibbs’ consecutive games without a shutout streak.
Worst part about the whole ordeal was that the guy never called me to give me his address. He felt sorry for me. The blowout was punishment enough, and the fact that he didn’t even bother to try to collect on the bet is way, way more of a slap in the face than paying up would have ever been. Lesson learned -- don’t ever bet on Washington in Foxboro. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to Redskins +13.5.
49ERS +7 over Falcons
The Niners are a dumpster fire. Betting on Blaine Gabbert is like trusting your nephew with a stock market investment. 69 percent of the betting public agrees that the Falcons are the safe pick in this contest, and with good reason -- San Francisco is 3-11 in their last 14 against the spread, and 3-11 in their last 14 at home. I’m really, really trying to find a silver lining right now for the 49ers but I just can’t see how they can stay within seven points of the Falcons. But Vegas was built on the backs of the arrogant, so I am ecstatic that I’m extremely confidant that the Falcons will cover this. Because I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to 49ers +7
COLTS +5 over Broncos
It’s the week of the home dog for me I suppose.
I’ve touched on this before, but like a lot of Americans, I put a whole hell of a lot more stock in a game that happened to take place in prime time than one that happened at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. Both of these teams played night games last week, which means that most of the football watching public saw Andrew Luck get outperformed by his own expectations, while old-ass Peyton Manning was distributing the football a like it was Worther’s Originals.
That Broncos defense was able to confuse Aaron Rodgers for four quarters, and now they get to go up against Andrew Luck in a brand new offense? Give me Denver all day on this one. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to Colts +5.
CHARGERS -4 over Bears
For one brief instant last week Chicago reminded me why Cutler-to-Alshon Jeffery can be so much fun to watch. The two of them have enough talent to be a premiere passing combination but they just haven’t seemed to be able to put it together consistently.
The Chargers have been really bad as of late against the spread. They’re 5-14 ATS total and 1-8 ATS in their last nine at home. If they had a healthy Keenan Allen, I would be much more confidant in betting on the Chargers. Quiet as it’s kept, he’d been one of the most electrifying receivers in the entire league this year, until a lacerated kidney against the Ravens knocked him out for the year. I’m not exactly feeling great about this one, but the casual fan in me told me to put it all on Chicago this week. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to the Chargers -4.
