We’ve only got three weeks left in the regular season and my strategy of picking against my gut instinct for Team OddsShark in the Supercontest has me at just under 54 percent on the season. That’s not terrible, but frankly, I’d rather be killing it or striking out totally. The worst-case scenario for me is if I ended the season at exactly .500. If I go 40 percent, then it means that I’m not as dumb as I thought I was, and if I got 60 percent then that means that my system works. But using this method and going 50 percent just means I’m extremely basic, and is further evidence that I should never gamble on sports.
NFL picks against the spread: 5 best bets for Week 15
The NFL season is winding down, but there’s still plenty of betting to do. Here are five games as picked by a regular Joe intent on not outsmarting himself.
Last week: 3-2
On the season: 37-32-1
This week’s picks (home team is in CAPS)
RAVENS +7.5 over Chiefs
Baltimore seems to be on a mission to collect the weirdest stable of backup QBs in the NFL. Making a move like signing Ryan Mallett to be your third-string QB somehow costs the Ravens 2.5 points in my head even though there’s virtually no chance he plays on Sunday. Just his Ryan Mallettness is an immediate downgrade to the franchise as a whole.
The Chiefs are the hottest team in the NFL, and it seems the media have just caught up to how well they’re playing now that the playoff picture is starting to crystallize a bit. This means that morons like me are going to start overvaluing them. The question you need to ask yourself is who do you trust more: Andy Reid laying over a TD on the road or Jimmy Clausen? Choice is easy: Chiefs. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to Ravens +7.5.
Titans +14.5 over PATRIOTS
The Titans’ ceiling seems to be semi-competent, while their basement is just about lower than whale dung. Betting on the Bad Titans to show up in a road game in Foxboro is probably pretty safe, and it seems a lot of people agree with me as 59 percent of the action is on the Patriots and the line had shifted to 15.5 as of Thursday afternoon.
The Titans are a miserable 0-4-1 against the spread in their last five, and 1-4 in their last five on the road. No one ever went broke betting against Mike Mularkey and I don’t plan to be the first. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to Titans +14.5.
Panthers -4.5 over GIANTS
Hey, remember that time the Giants beat the Patriots twice in the Super Bowl, and almost did it again this year, kind of? I sure do, and I choose to believe that those three games give me an insider tip on their ability to knock off the undefeated Panthers at home. Also, the Giants are fresh off a prime time victory on Monday night, so morons like me will really think they’re starting to put it all together.
There’s been a narrative that’s starting to be dispelled that the Panthers are the worst 13-0 team in the history of the NFL, which is a pretty hilarious thing to say, but the underlying point is that they have some very real and well-documented weaknesses that get covered up by Cam Newton on offense, and All-Pro linebacker play on defense. So if the Giants can beat the Patriots in that Super Bowl seven years ago, this should be a cakewalk. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to Panthers -4.5.
Broncos +6.5 over STEELERS
If I had a dollar for every time I’ve heard “no one wants to play the Steelers” this week, I would be a rich man. To be fair, they have been playing pretty well against some pretty trash teams recently, beating the Browns, the Matt Hasselbeck-led Colts and AJ McCarron’s Bengals. But it’s true, they’re in great position to make a playoff push if they can knock off the Broncos at home.
The Broncos are fresh off a loss to the Raiders, which in my mind is the equivalent of losing six in a row at home because Oakland has been so bad for so long that I refuse to believe that they’re good until they put together back-to-back double-digit-win seasons. So I like the Steelers in this one, but I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to Broncos +6.5.
49ERS +4.5 over Bengals
Gonna be honest with you on this one, I totally outsmarted myself here. At first, I was all in on the Bengals due to the AJ McCarron situation until I realized that the 49ers are still starting Blaine Gabbert. The Bengals have a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball and offensive line, and despite the loss of Andy Dalton they still boast a backfield of Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill.
The 49ers can’t be too confident coming off a loss to the Cleveland Browns. The public echoes this sentiment; 65 percent of all tickets are on the Bengals so far, which is no surprise given the 49ers’ 6-13 record ATS in their last 19, as well as Cincinnati’s recent 10-2-1 run. I like the Bengals to win by a TD at least, but I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to 49ers +4.5.
