Just over a month ago, Week 13's Thursday Night Football tilt between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers looked like it might be the coronation of a fifth straight NFC North crown for the Packers.
Packers vs. Lions 2015, ‘Thursday Night Football’ preview: Green Bay looks to rebound in Detroit
The Lions are going for their first season sweep of the Packers since 1991.
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
They entered November with a 6-0 record and were living up to their preseason status as a Super Bowl favorite. The Lions, meanwhile, were a trainwreck over the first eight weeks and fell to 1-7 after a Nov. 1 blowout loss to the Chiefs.
That same day, the Broncos handed the Packers their first loss, sending them into a tailspin and grasping for answers about their suddenly rocky season. They've now lost four of their last five games as the offense continues to sputter, and have been relegated to a wild card slot in the playoff picture.
Despite the recent slide, the Packers aren't in dire shape yet. They do have upcoming winnable games against the Cowboys and Raiders, but the rest of their remaining slate is challenging. Three of their final five games are on the road and they close with back-to-back contests against the Cardinals and Vikings.
Although Green Bay is behind Minnesota in the standings, the team owns a critical head-to-head win against its rival. So as long as they stay within one game heading into their Week 17 showdown, the Packers still control their own destiny in the division race.
While Green Bay has been in a freefall, the Lions have caught fire over the past month. Detroit has won its last three games, and although it is a long shot for a playoff spot, it still has a chance to finish the season with a flourish and ruin the postseason hopes of its remaining opponents.
A win over the Packers would be extra sweet for fans in Motown, too: not only would it make their rival’s playoff position even more precarious, but it would also be the Lions’ first season sweep of Green Bay since 1991.
Digits
The Packers' offense has taken a serious tumble since its 6-0 start. Aaron Rodgers and company are averaging just 19.6 points and 319.8 yards per game over the last five weeks, a far cry from their production in the first six games (27.3 points and 364.2 yards). A perennially elite offense has lost its identity and is clearly not in sync, a problem that looms large as the team heads into the final stretch of the season.
Granted, some regression on offense was expected with the loss of Jordy Nelson in the preseason, but the steep drop-off in the passing game has been shocking. The Packers are ranked 23rd in passing yards per game -- they have never finished outside the top 10 with Rodgers under center.
The struggles have been most acute recently: Rodgers is averaging 5.7 yards per attempt while completing 53.8 percent of his passes in the last five games. Those numbers were 8.2 and 68.1 percent, respectively, during the Packers’ season-opening six-game win streak.
Not all of the blame falls on Rodgers, though. The Packers’ wide receivers have had a ton of trouble hanging onto the ball. They’ve dropped a whopping 23 passes over the last eight games, the most in the league in that span. The connection with Davante Adams clearly isn’t working. His catch rate (50 percent) and yards per reception (10.1) are both fourth-worst among wide receivers with at least 60 targets this season.
The Lions’ resurgence has been fueled by an unprecedented turnaround from the defense, which has gone from allowing the most points per game through the first nine weeks (30.6) to allowing the fourth-fewest since then (14.3). While the numbers haven’t been as dramatic on the other side of the ball, the team’s offensive renaissance has been equally impressive since Jim Bob Cooter took over for Joe Lombardi in Week 8.
Matthew Stafford looks much more comfortable in Cooter's schemes. He has seven touchdowns and one interception with a passer rating of 106.5 during Detroit's three-game win streak. Compare that to his first eight games when Stafford threw nearly as many touchdowns (13) as picks (11) and had a rating of 84.1.
He's also looking for his best offensive weapon more often. Calvin Johnson has at least eight targets in each of the four games under Cooter; he got fewer than eight targets in three of seven games with Lombardi. Megatron is just 79 yards shy of his seventh career campaign with at least 1,000 receiving yards. No other player in Lions history has more than four 1,000-yard receiving seasons.
Who to Watch
The lone highlight in Green Bay's recent offensive funk has been the rebirth of Eddie Lacy, who struggled mightily in the first few months. He averaged just 50 rushing yards per game and 3.7 yards per rush through the beginning of November, as he battled injuries and faced questions about his physical conditioning.
The Packers seem to have their workhorse runner back on track now, with Lacy posting his two best performances of the season against Minnesota and Chicago. He’s run for at least 100 yards in back-to-back games at clip of 5.3 yards per carry, and looks primed to be a key part of the offense down the stretch. With the passing game in shambles, a productive Lacy could be the key to reviving the Packers’ offense.
How to Watch
When: 8:25 p.m. ET
Where: Ford Field, Detroit
TV: CBS, NFL Network
Commentators: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson
Online: Verizon NFL Mobile, NFL.com/watch
Odds
The Packers are 3-point favorite and the over/under is 46.5, according to OddsShark.com.
Preliminary Judgment
The experts are giving the edge to the Packers, but there’s not a consensus. CBS Sports is favoring Green Bay by a 7-1 margin but our guys here at SB Nation think it will be a closer matchup. Three of the eight are going with Detroit to pull off the upset.
Further Reading
For everything Packers, check out Acme Packing Company. To read more about the Lions, head over to Pride of Detroit.
See More:
