NFL survivor pool strategy, Week 13: Divisional games, anyone?

If you consider yourself someone that tends to overthink Survivor Pools, you probably 1) know what to look for when seeking out games to avoid, and 2) read a weekly piece ranking Survivor Pool picks at some sports blog. Unfortunately, knowledge pertaining to that first note also means you understand why we’re all doomed.

Outside of road games, divisional matchups the second time around are the hardest to pick against. Take the last two weeks, for instance. Seven divisional foes squared off against one another for the second time and only three ended up sweeping the season series; the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals each defeated the San Francisco 49ers twice (go figure) while the New York Jets caused the Miami Dolphins to fire coaching personnel following both losses.

This week, there are nine divisional games on the slate, six of which are being played as the rubber match (or whatever the hell the football equivalent of that is). In other words, good luck.

You may have heard by now that the Houston Texans are winners of four straight. You may have also heard of that J.J. Watt guy and how he’s apparently really good. But lost in the midst of their 6-5 surge is the fact that Houston has actually been susceptible on the ground. Though the Texans haven’t allowed a single runner to rush for more than 64 yards in the last four games, they’re still allowing 4.5 YPA over that span. Considering LeSean McCoy has received at least 19 carries and five targets in every game during that time, the Bills are quietly built to match up perfectly with Houston. - JD

I’m not sure where the Matt Ryan of old has gone, but the Atlanta Falcons are 2-5 in their last seven games. During that time, Ryan has a 10-11 TD-INT ratio, including a league-high four red zone interceptions. Even with Devonta Freeman expected to return, Jameis Winston and the Bucs should be able to do just enough to knock of the waning Falcons at home. - JD

Hey, so Matt Cassel’s the Dallas quarterback again. - DK

No one has told Matt Hasselbeck that he’s a 40-year-old dad who doesn’t know how to work a tablet. After all, the Colts are now 4-0 with Hasselbeck under center and remain tied atop the AFC South. Ben Roethlisberger has been better than ever as of late, throwing for at least 330 yards in each of his last three games, but the Steelers secondary has mirrored that production in yards allowed over that time. Given the fact that the Colts have yet to slow down without Andrew Luck, I consider Pittsburgh more of a coin toss than outright victor. - JD

The thing is, I think the Panthers will beat the New Orleans Saints this week. I mean, 11-0 vs. 4-7 is enough of an explanation as is. But this game is in New Orleans, and the Saints in general (and Drew Brees in particular) are a much better home team than a road team. If you’ve been saving the Panthers this long, save them for one of the Atlanta games coming up. - DK

Since we’ve already succumb to their annual Thursday night tradition against one another, there’s zero logic in watching these two battle with eight other games simultaneously being played. Stay away not just in your survivor pools, but in general. - JD

In theory, the Giants should be fairly competitive against just about any team. It’s a roster with a lot of offensive weapons, and even with a middling defense, Odell Beckham Jr. alone should make for some help. And the Jets are only an OK team. But as it happens, the Giants’ current primary weakness (an offensive line the approximate consistency of cheesecloth) matches up really poorly with the Jets’ current strength (a defensive line made of osmium and opacity). The Giants would be a middling pick most weeks, but this week they’re even scarier. - DK