NFL picks against the spread, Week 13: Looking to avoid SuperContest letdown

Welcome back for Week 13 of the 2015 NFL season. The return of the NFL means gambling is back in our lives. The NFL might frown upon it, but gambling and fantasy football are two of the biggest reasons for the NFL’s insane level of popularity. I think they’ll put up with it.

This year I am back for another crack at the LVH SuperContest. The contest includes over 1,400 participants picking games each week to see who can come out on top. Our partners at OddsShark have staked myself and a handful of other participants in the SuperContest. You can track all of us here, and you can follow the standings here.

The contest involves picking five games each week, for 17 weeks. You get to choose which five games you will pick. The lines are locked in Wednesday evening, and picks are submitted by the end of the week. I am currently sitting at 39-19-2. I am coming of a strong performance, going 4-1 in Week 12. Hopefully I can avoid the inevitable letdown. Here are my five picks for Week 13.

BUFFALO BILLS (-3.5) over Houston Texans

The Texans are on fire, going 5-1 straight up and against the spread in their last six games, while the Bills are 2-4 SU and 2-3-1 ATS in that same span. This was a tough one, particularly with Buffalo’s right tackle sidelined, but I think Tyrod Taylor and the Bills defense can take care of business. I am not overly confident in the pick, but Rex Ryan has solid history after losses, and I think this follows.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (-4) over Baltimore Ravens

A decent amount of money is coming in on Baltimore, but I am going against that due to recency bias. The Dolphins lost easily to the New York Jets last week, while the Ravens won a wild one over the Cleveland Browns. Matt Schaub is usually good for some turnovers, and I think that will swing this one in Miami’s favor.

ST. LOUIS RAMS (+5.5) over Arizona Cardinals

No game has had more public money backing the favorite than this one. The Rams are struggling, while the Cardinals have won five straight. I could see Arizona wanting revenge for the Rams road win earlier this season, but this divisional game has all the makings of a tight one. I don’t know that the Rams can win outright, but they could put a scare in Arizona.

Denver Broncos (-4) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

The Broncos are coming off a huge win over New England, so I am hoping to avoid a letdown in this game. The Broncos offense is starting to get into gear, with Brock Osweiler proving to be much more effective than 2015 Peyton Manning. The ground game is picking up steam, and the Chargers one strength, the passing game, faces a tough Broncos defense.

Dallas Cowboys (+4.5) over WASHINGTON

Everything in my gut says pick Washington. Kirk Cousins and company are much better at home than on the road, and the Cowboys just lost Tony Romo in a devastating Thanksgiving defeat. While I do not think the Cowboys will win this game, I do think we see a more competitive affair than people expect. I’m going against my gut with this one.

Here are all my picks for Week 13 (8-8 last week, 89-81-5 overall):

DETROIT LIONS vs. Green Bay Packers (-3): Packers - Win
CHICAGO BEARS vs. San Francisco 49ers (+7): 49ers
CLEVELAND BROWNS vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5): Bengals
TENNESSEE TITANS vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5): Jaguars
BUFFALO BILLS vs. Houston Texans (+3.5): Bills
MIAMI DOLPHINS vs. Baltimore Ravens (+4): Dolphins
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS vs. Carolina Panthers (-7): Saints
MINNESOTA VIKINGS vs. Seattle Seahawks (PK): Vikings
ST. LOUIS RAMS vs. Arizona Cardinals (-5.5): Rams
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS vs. Atlanta Falcons (+1.5): Falcons
NEW YORK GIANTS vs. New York Jets (-2.5): Jets
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS vs. Denver Broncos (-4): Broncos
OAKLAND RAIDERS vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5): Chiefs
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs. Philadelphia Eagles (+9.5): Patriots
PITTSBURGH STEELERS vs. Indianapolis Colts (+7): Steelers
WASHINGTON vs. Dallas Cowboys (+4.5): Cowboys