One key milestone in the draft evaluation process was checked off earlier this week with the end of the NFL Combine, and another was completed on Thursday when ESPN's Todd McShay released the third version of his mock draft. After sorting through the results from the measurements, positional drills and athletic testing of the top prospects, McShay made several updates to his big board and shuffled a couple of defensive ends and wide receivers around.
Kevin White jumps Amari Cooper in Todd McShay’s Mock Draft 3.0
Dante Fowler was also one of the biggest risers in McShay’s latest mock draft.
Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
The strong performance of the consensus top two quarterbacks, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, at the Combine solidified McShay's views on where the duo will land in the draft. The analyst kept Winston as the No. 1 overall pick, and also still has Mariota going to the New York Jets at No. 6. This is the second straight version for McShay with the quarterbacks in those positions; his initial mock draft in December featured Mariota as the top pick and Winston going next to the Tennessee Titans.
The biggest mover in McShay's Mock Draft 3.0 was Florida defensive end Dante Fowler Jr., who jumped up from No. 13 to being taken third overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars. The former Gator put on an impressive performance at the Combine, displaying the elite speed and athleticism necessary to be a stud edge rusher in the NFL. Fowler's rise up the draft board caused McShay to drop defensive ends Randy Gregory and Shane Ray to the No. 5 and No. 8 picks.
Another shakeup came at the wide receiver position, where West Virginia's Kevin White supplanted Alabama's Amari Cooper as the first wideout taken, following his eye-opening 40 time (4.35) and strong showing in the positional drills at the Combine. McShay swapped the two receivers and now has the Oakland Raiders selecting White at fourth overall and Cooper going to the St. Louis Rams at No. 10.
Here’s a closer look at McShay’s top 10 picks:
1. Jameis Winston, QB - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
McShay acknowledged that while either Mariota or Winston are possibilities here for the quarterback-needy Bucs, he sees Winston as having the edge based on his superior on-field performance. He believes the former Florida State quarterback is the most complete and pro-ready signal caller in the draft, and that he has separated himself from Mariota at this point.
Teams still have plenty of time to go through the vetting process in examining Winston’s off-field issues, but that doesn’t appear to be as big of an obstacle anymore. McShay heard that Winston “really impressed” teams during his interviews at the Combine, and that he blew them away with his pure football intelligence.
2. Leonard Williams, DE - Tennessee Titans
The Titans have a promising young quarterback in Zach Mettenberger, so they don't have to take a QB with their first-round pick. McShay adds that Mariota's skill set is probably not the best fit for head coach Ken Whisenhunt, who typically prefers a more established pocket passer to lead his offense. Williams has a chance to be a real difference-maker on defense for the Titans, who tied for 29th in points allowed and allowed the second-most rushing yards per game last season.
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3. Dante Fowler Jr., DE - Jacksonville Jaguars
As noted above, Fowler rocketed up the drafts boards following the combine and established himself as one of the most versatile defensive players in the draft. Not only can he rush the passer, but he also showed the ability to be a dominant run defender on the edge. McShay sees Fowler as a really good fit in the Jaguars' 4-3 defensive scheme next to tackles Roy Miller and Sen'Derrick Marks.
4. Kevin White, WR - Oakland Raiders
The Raiders clearly have a need at wide receiver to give second-year quarterback Derek Carr more weapons on the outside. No Oakland wideout cracked the top 60 in receiving yards last season, with leading receiver Andre Holmes (693 yards) checking in at 66th on the list. The choice for the Raiders comes down to White and Amari Cooper. Although McShay says that Cooper is probably the more NFL-ready receiver, he sees White as having more big-play potential and thinks Oakland will take the former Mountaineer at No. 4.
5. Randy Gregory, DE - Washington
Washington has a ton of holes to fill this offseason, but perhaps none is more important than finding a dominant pass rusher, especially with Brian Orakpo set to hit free agency in March. McShay notes that Gregory has "freakish athleticism" for a player his size (6'6, 245 pounds), and would be an excellent guy to pair with Ryan Kerrigan at outside linebacker.
6. Marcus Mariota, QB - New York Jets
McShay believes that if Mariota falls this far, it provides the perfect opportunity for new general manager Mike Maccagnan to grab the reigning Heisman winner and draft his handpicked quarterback. Although he is considered to be a step below Winston in terms of pure quarterback talent, Mariota still has the potential to be a star if a team has patience with him and lets him develop. McShay adds that Jets offensive coordinator Chan Gailey is a good fit for Mariota, given his experience with spread-formation offenses.
7. Danny Shelton, DT - Chicago Bears
The Bears clearly need to upgrade their defense, which ranked 30th in yards allowed and 31st in points allowed. The massive nose tackle has the potential to be the centerpiece of defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s new 3-4 defense. The 339-pounder is a huge space-eater in the trenches, and has proven to be both stout against the run and an above-average interior pass rusher.
8. Shane Ray, DE - Atlanta Falcons
McShay dropped Missouri’s Shane Ray on his big board after his subpar performance in Indianapolis. He had disappointing results in the bench press (21 reps) and weighed in at just 246 pounds, causing concern about his lack of strength and power. The Falcons, however, will take all the pass-rushing help they can get, and Ray is probably the best edge rusher available at this point in the draft.
9. Brandon Scherff, OT - New York Giants
With the Giants leaning heavily toward franchising defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, help on the offensive line becomes their biggest need here in the first round. Scherff is McShay's highest-rated offensive lineman, and his combination of athleticism and versatility (he can line up at either guard or tackle) should provide a big upgrade up front for the Giants.
10. Amari Cooper, WR - St. Louis Rams
While McShay notes that the Rams’ biggest needs are probably quarterback and offensive line, neither of those positions will have highly ranked prospects available this late in the draft, so the best bet is for St. Louis to take a wide receiver at No. 10. Cooper should be a nice value pick here for the Rams. He is considered the most complete receiver and the most polished route runner in the draft.
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SB Nation’s Dan Kadar released his most recent mock draft on Monday following the Combine, and he see things very differently than McShay after the Buccaneers take Winston at No. 1. He has the Titans scooping up Mariota with the next pick, thinking that Tennessee is not sold on the future of Mettenberger, and then Jacksonville taking Williams third.
Kadar also still has Cooper has the top wide receiver and slots him at No. 4 to the Raiders. He moved Fowler up his board and thinks the Jets will snap him with the sixth pick, while the Bears opt for an edge rusher in Kentucky’s Bud Dupree at No. 7.
Next he sees the Falcons filling their pass-rushing needs with Clemson’s Vic Beasley, who also improved his stock with an impressive Combine performance. Kadar agrees with McShay in that the Giants will select an offensive lineman with the ninth pick, but he believes it will be LSU’s La’el Collins. Rounding out the top 10, Kadar has the Rams upgrading their offensive line by taking Scherff.
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